The image above shows the synoptic situation expected for Monday 13 September at 12utc. The low center North of the McClure Strait is expected to deepen and to move to the ESE. This results in strong Westerly winds along the Northern coast of Canada. Below you see a satellite image of the Queen Elisabeth Islands and a part of the NW Territories. (Image from the Canadian Weather Office). Click on the images to see the full display.

Weather Forecast North East West passage -11 Spt- day 60
 
General situation
The last few days, you have been sailing on the eastern flank of the ‘Beaufort Sea High Pressure Cell’ but unfortunately this feature is moving faster than you guys, so it catches up with you and is going to take you over as well! As a consequence the wind will drop and veers to to the East. Today the wind will hardly be any stronger than 5 knots but it will be a headwind. If you would gain again a few minutes in Northerly direction that will pay off tomorrow as the wind is expected to turn to the SW again (see below), and than it is easy to go back more to the South.
The last two runs of the model have introduced a deepening depression. I described the track of the center of this depression in detail below but you should be aware that this feature is expected to generate some strong Westerly winds when you are estimated to be approximately to the South of Banks Island. As from this point this depression is likely to generate winds varying between 20-30kts and this at least for 24 to 36 hours.
Track of depression - utc timeframe
Monday 13 September-00utc: 77.5/-144
Monday 13 September-12utc: 76.5/-125
Tuesday 14 September-06utc: 76.0/-119
Tuesday 14 September-12utc: 75.5/-113
Tuesday 14 September-18utc: 74.8/-109
On the 13th this will result in a straight Westerly wind averagely between 15-20kt
On the 14th: the wind veers to the NW and becomes 20-25kt (average)
Of course i will keep an eye on this depression. It is possible that the future model runs, flatten it out or make it stronger. I will keep you updated.
 
Day 1: 11 Sept
Expected track: 71.2/-138.5 to 71.2/-135
Weather: possibly fogg/low clouds-very cloudy with some weak sunny spells.
Wind: mainly less than 5kt initially from 050-070°, after 15/18utc veering to 120-140°
 
Day 2: 12 Sept
Expected track: 71.2/-135 to 71.2/-130
Weather: still possibly foggy or low stuff, later thickening and resulting in some slight snow/sleet fall
Wind: 180-200°3-6kt, after 09utc becoming 230-250°4-8kt after 21utc becoming 230-250°12-17kt
 
Day 3: 13 Sept
Expected track: 71.2/-130 to 70.6/-124
Weather: very cloudy to overcast with possibly some slight snow/sleet
Wind: after 03utc becoming 270-290°18-23kt, after 21utc becoming 280-300°20-25kt
 
Day 4: 14 Sept
Expected track: 70.6/-124 to 69.8/-118
Weather: clearing, good visibility, colder.
Wind: 300-320°20-25kt, no significant change.

This is the expected synoptic situation valid for tomorrow 11 September at 1200utc. The center of the High Pressure cell moves from West to East along the 74° parallel. As a consequence the favourable wind that our guys had yesterday and today will gradually veer and turn into the Easterly corner. However the wind speed remains pretty low. Click on the image.

Weather Forecast North East West passage -10 Spt- day 59
 
General situation
The overall conditions for today are pretty similar as described yesterday. The approach of the mobile high pressure cell will make the wind veer tonight (after 24utc), and further to the East tomorrow (11 September) and becomes quite weak. From this point there is a change compared to yesterday: probably we will not get at the Western side of the high pressure cell as its eastern movement slows down and becomes almost stationary to the South of Banks Island. This means that the 12th will probably be an other day with rather weak winds, changing from East to Southwest.
Out of experience i know that details of the wind conditions near or below a high pressure cell can change every run. So stay tuned for every update.
(All forecasted winds are average values).
 
Day 1: 10 Sept
Expected track: 71.4/-144 to 71.4/-139
Weather: very cloudy. No precipitation. Some weak sunny spells.
Wind: 280-300°8-13kt after 12/15utc becoming 290-310°6-10kt after 24utc becoming 360-020°3-8kt
 
Day 2: 11 Sept
Expected track: 71.4/-139 to 71.2/-135
Weather: sunny spells, altered with cloudy periods.
Wind: after 06utc becoming 040-060°3-6kt, after 15utc becoming 090-110°2-6kt
 
Day 3: 12 Sept
Expected track: 71.2/-135 to 71.0/-130
Weather: very cloudy to overcast: misty, foggy
Wind: 100-120° less than 6kt, after 12/15utc temporarily becoming calm, after 18/21utc becoming 200-220°3-6kt

Day 4: 13 Sept
Expected track: 71.0/-130 to 70.5/-130
Weather: very cloudy to overcast with possibly some slight snow or sleet.
Wind: 260-280°3-8kt, after 15utc becoming 250-270°4-8kt.

This is the synoptic map valid for 12utc Saturday 11 September. A well defined high pressure cell will determine the weather conditions during this forecast period. Around a high pressure cell the wind turns clockwise in the Northern hemisphere. This means when you are ahead of such a system the wind comes from the NW to NE’ly sector. When the center comes across to the North of your position than the wind turns to the East and at the back of this sytem wind turns back to the South. Click on the images to get the full display.

This is a very nice satellite image of Alaska and the Beaufort Sea. It is taken in the visible channel so it shows the cloud distrubution as you would see it from space. This picture is taken by the AVHRR (advanced very high resolution radiometer) that sits on the NOAA 18 satellite.

Weather Forecast North East West passage -09 Spt- day 58
 
General situation
The next few days the synoptic situation will be dominated by a travelling high pressure cell. The center of this feature moves from West to East along the 74 parallel and determines the wind conditions during this period.
On Friday at 12utc the center of this high pressure is till at 74.5/-162 but moves than quickly to the East to be positioned 24 hours later at 74/-137!  Translated into wind conditions this means that for the next 24 to 36 hours you will be on the Eastern flank of this high pressure cell which means that the wind will veer to the NW (today) and how closer the center gets the more the wind veers to the North. As soon as you see that the barometric pressure is decreasing again, than the wind will veer from the East to the SE and later to the SW when you are back on the western flank of that high pressure cell.
(All forecasted winds are average values).
 
Day 1: 09 Sept
Weather: sunny spells-becoming very cloudy. No precipitation. Possibly foggy after 15/18utc.
Wind: after 9utc becoming 290-310/6-10kt and after 12utc becoming 310-330°8-13kt
 
Day 2: 10 Sept
Weather: very cloudy with weak sunny spells.
Wind: 310-3306-10kt, after 15/18utc as the center of the high approaches (if you have a barometer you can see that the pressure will rise) the wind will veer to the N and later to the NE and will decrease to become, after 21/24utc 040-060°3-8kt.
 
Day 3: 11 Sept
Weather: very cloudy with weak sunny spells, no precipitation.
Wind: the wind will further veer to the East: 090-110°5-10kt, and as the pressure falls again the wind should gradually start to veer to ESE to SE, becoming after 15/18utc 120-140°5-10kt.
 
Day 4: 12 Sept
Weather: sunny spells and dry
Wind: 150-170°5-10kt, after 21utc becoming 180-200°4-8kt.

This satellite image shows the coast of North Alaska. The bright cloudband on top of the picture is a zone where cold Arctic air meets warmer air from the South. Where those two airmasses meet, clouds are formed and precipitation is possible.

Weather Forecast North East West passage -08 Spt- day 57
 
General situation
No big strategics this time, wait for the wind to shift and than sail eastwards along the 71.5 parallel. The next 48 to 60 hours the wind should come out of the favourable corner with an acceptable speed. By the end (in utc time) of day 3, the wind will decrease and rop away, to pick again the next day from the ESE’ly direction

(All forecasted winds are average values).
 
Day 1: 08 Sept
Weather: very cloudy-dry
Wind: after 9/12utc becoming 160-180°4-8kt after 158utc becoming 240-260°6-10kt after 21utc becoming 270-290°6-10kt.
 
Day 2: 09 Sept 
Weather: very cloudy-no precipiation. Possibly foggy.
Wind: 280-300°8-13kt, no significant change.
 
Day 3: 10 Sept
Weather: very cloudy with possibly fog patches.
Wind: 300-320°5-10kt, after 12utc becoming 340-360°3-7kt, further decreasing. After 24utc turning NE to E.
 
Day 4: 11 Sept
Weather: sunny spells and dry, Still have to take in accoount formation of fog patches
Wind: 090-110°8-13kt, after 18utc becoming 120-140°12-17kt.

This satellite image is taken by the AVHRR (Advance Very High Resolution Radiometer) that sits on the polar orbiting satellite NOAA19. This satellite circles around the world in about 100 minutes at an altitude of approximately 800km. This is an image in the visual channel, this means that the radiometer captures the short wave radiation that is reflected by the Earth’s surface, clouds, etc. It is from 1800utc, 6 September 2010.

This image gives you an overview of the Western Arctic, from the Chukchi Sea, via the Beaufort Sea towards Ellesmere Island. The white dot at the top is the North Pole. Point Barrow is indicated with the red arrow. If you have red the overview of the climate conditions at Point Barrow (previous post) than you know that it is very exceptional to have clear skies in summer with an open sea. However this image shows the PB arrow clear of clouds, with fog or Stratus cloud a little bit further at Sea.

Very typical for high pressure conditions is the low cloud cover. The strong high over the Beaufort Sea is generating a lot of Stratus, or low cloud. The vertical movement in a high pressure system is downward: when air moves downward it is getting warmer and drier. Until it hits the inversion layer. In this layer, that extends from the surface upto a variable height of 500-800meter, all moisture is captured which results in fog/low clouds.

This map shows the synoptic sutuation valid for 12utc the 7th of September. It is clear that along the Southern flank of the Beaufort high pressure system a strong Easterly wind blows along the Northern Alaska coast. Click on the map to see the full display.

Northern Passage at Point Barrow!

Climate of the Point Barrow region

Owing to its location 320 miles (515 km) north of the Arctic Circle, Barrow’s climate is cold and dry and is classified as a polar climate. Winter weather can be extremely dangerous because of the combination of cold and wind, while summers are cool even at their warmest. Weather observations are available for Barrow dating back into the late 1800s.[6] Currently there is a National Weather Service (NWS) Office and a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Monitoring Lab in Barrow.
Despite the extreme northern location, temperatures at Barrow are moderated by the surrounding topography. With the Arctic Ocean on three sides, and flat tundra stretching some 200 miles (300 km) to the south there are no wind barriers and there are no protected valleys where dense cold air can settle or form temperature inversions in the lower atmosphere in the way that commonly happens in the Interior between the Brooks Range and the Alaska Range.
Barrow experiences the lowest average temperatures in Alaska. While recording the lowest temperatures statewide during cold waves is rare, extremely low wind chill and “white out” conditions from blowing snow are very common.
Temperatures remain below freezing from early October through late May. The high daily temperature is above freezing on an average of only 109 days per year. There are freezing temperatures on an average of 324 days per year. Freezing temperatures, and snowfall, can occur during any month of the year.
Barrow is a desert, with an average of less than 5 in (127 mm) “equivalent rainfall” per year, which includes less than 30 in (76 cm) of snow. (Since one inch of rain is approximately equal to twelve inches (305 mm) of snow).
The first snow (defined as snow that will not melt until next spring) generally falls during the first week of October, when temperatures cease to rise above freezing during the day. October is usually the month with the heaviest snowfall, with at least a trace of snow virtually every day and an average total accumulation of about 7 in (18 cm).Snow can also fall in the summer.
On November 18 or 19 the sun goes down, and remains below the horizon for about 65 days until it re-appears, normally on January 22 or January 23. During the first half of the polar night there is a decreasing amount of twilight each day, and on the winter solstice, December 21 or December 22, civil twilight in Barrow lasts for a mere 3 hours.
In addition to the low temperatures and months without sun, Barrow is also one of the cloudiest places on earth. Owing to the prevailing easterly winds off the Arctic Ocean, Barrow is completely overcast slightly more than 50% of the year and at least 70% overcast 62% of the time. Cloud types are mainly low stratus and fog, cumuli forms are rare. Peak cloudiness occurs in August and September when the ocean is open. Dense fog occurs an average of 65 days per year, mostly in the summer months. Ice fog is very common during the winter months, especially when the temperature drops below −30 °F (−34 °C).
Serious cold weather usually begins in January, and February is generally the coldest month, averaging −16 °F (−27 °C). A few days in December, January, February, and March feature daily record high temperatures in the low double digits, with the mid-30s that you see for the monthly record highs being exceptions. By March 1 the sun is up for 9 hours, the average temperature is 2 or 3 degrees warmer, and the winds are usually higher. April brings less extreme temperatures, with an average of about 0 °F (−18 °C), but on April 1 there are over 14 hours of sunlight. In May the temperatures are much warmer, averaging 20 °F (−7 °C). Beginning on May 11–12, the phenomenon known as the midnight sun occurs and the sun does not set for 82–83 days, until July 31-August 1. In June the average temperature rises above freezing, to 35 °F (2 °C), and average daily temperatures remain above freezing until mid-September.
July is the warmest month of the year with an average high of 46 °F (8 °C) and an average low temperature of 34 °F (1 °C). Beginning in late July the Arctic Ocean is relatively ice-free, and remains so until late October.
Variation of wind speed during the year is small, with the fall months being windiest. Extreme winds from 40–60 mph (60–100 km/h) have been recorded for all months.[7] The average winds are 12 mph (20 km/h), from the east. (source Wikipedia)

This map shows the synoptic situation valid for the 7th of September. The high pressure over the Beaufort Sea and the low over the Kotzebeu Sound, in between a strong Easterly wind along the North Alaska coast towards point Barrow. Click on the map to see the full display.

Weather Forecast North East West passage -05 Spt- day 54
 
General situation
A pretty deep depression develops over the Bering Sea whilst a large high pressure system cover the best parts of the Beaufort Sea. In between those two pressure systems a strong Easterly windfield is maintained. This situation seems to be rather persistent, next week as well and triggers some strong Easterly wind over the Southern parts of the Beaufort Sea. Especially the seventh of September the stretch beyond Point Barrow seems to be very windy.
On the 8th a low pressure trough will gradually extend towards the Southern parts of the Beaufort Sea. This results in easing and turning winds on the 8th.
However details in local wind conditions can still change and might offer different possibilities to progress Eastwards.
(All forecasted winds are average values).
 
Day 1: 05 Sept
Weather: scattered to broken clouds with sunny spells.
Wind: 080-100°10-15kt after 12utc becoming 060-080°8-12kt. No significant change.
 
Day 2: 06 Sept
Weather: sunny spells with scattered cloud.
Wind: 100-120°8-13kt after 24utc 100-120°12-16kt (East of Point Barrow).
 
Day 3: 07 Sept
Weather: broken cloud, sunny spells. No precipitation.
Wind: 100-120°15-20kt, after 12utc 080-100°18-23kt. (Decreasing after 21/24utc, and gradually turning to SSE)
 
Outlook beyond Point Barrow
8 Sept: 150-170°5-10kt becominf 210-230°4-8kt, than dropping away before turning to 080-100°12-16kt.
9 Sept: 090-110°8-13kt, no siginificant change
10 Sept: 090-110°8-13kt, gradually becoming 5-10kt

These values are close to the coast, further out in the Sea you can easily add 10kt.

On the synoptic map of this morning 0600utc you can see the powerful high pressure cell (or anticyclone) with a ridge extending towards the Chukchi Sea. At the same time over the Bering Sea there is a complex low pressure area with a convergence line. In between the former and the latter there is a strong Easterly windfield along the North coast of Alaska. Click on the map to see the full display.

Summarized weather forecast for the North East West passage -04 Spt- day 53
 
General situation
The main player on the field is and remains the high pressure cell situated over the Beaufort Sea. The center of this pressure system is this morning at 0600utc situated at 76.7/-136.5. A ridge (or an extension of a high pressure cell) stretches out Westwards to the Chukchi Sea. Along the Southern flank of this ridge a pretty strong Easterly is maintained during this period. Local and small scale conditions may alter that wind a little: the first few hours from now the wind veers to the SSE due to a developing convergence line over the C-sea. This will only last for 6, maximum 9 hours before the wind drops and turns back to the East or Northeast after 21/24utc (today).

(All forecasted winds are average values).
 
Day 1: 04 Sept
Weather: very cloudy with some short sunny spells. Later increasing cloudiness and more risk for a showery outbreak.
Wind: between 6 and 12utc wind veers to 150-170°6-12kt, after 18utc becoming calm and after 21/24utv turning to 040-060°5-10kt.
 
Day 2: 05 Sept
Weather: sunny spells with scattered cloud. Mainly dry.
Wind: after 6utc becoming 070-090°8-13kt (close along the coast) further in sea you can add 5-10kt.
 
Day 3: 06 Sept
Weather: sunny and dry.
Wind: 090-110°8-13kt, no significant change. After 24utc gradually increasing.
 
Day 4: 07 Sept
Weather: increasing cloudiness.
Wind: mainly 100-120°15-20kt

This is the synoptic situation valid for tonight 18utc (3Sept). The main feature on this map is the strong, powerful High pressure system over the Beaufort Sea. This system generates a strong Easterly wind along its Soutwestern flank. Click on the image to see the full display.

Weather Forecast North East West passage -03 Spt- day 52
 
General situation
The main player on the synoptic maps becomes and remains the powerful and persistent high pressure system over the Beaufort Sea. Between this system and the migratory depressions over the Southern parts of the Chukchi and Bering Sea, a strong  Easterly is maintained over the largest parts of the C-sea. Fortunately one of those moving depressions gave us some veering winds last night and also a part of today. However, as said yesterday, the wind is going to back again to the East after 18utc.
Than you will have probably 6 to 9 hours S to SE’ly wind, so continue Eastwards. Between 9 and 12utc (4Sept) the wind goes back to the East, from this point you can add the Northerly component in your track (at this point you should be fairly close to the coast).

(All forecasted winds are average values).
 
Day 1: 03 Sept
Weather: very cloudy but clouds break and some sunny spells develop.
Wind: 130-150°12-17kt, after 15/18utc becoming 090-110°10-15kt. After 00/03utc wind veers again to 160-180°
 
Day 2: 04 Sept
Weather: sunny spells with scattered to broken cloud cover. Mainly dry.
Wind: 160-180°5-10kt between 9 and 12utc backing to 100-120° (this is the point to start going Northwards) and gradually increasing to 12-16kt
 
Day 3: 05 Sept
ExpWeather: variable cloudiness, sunny spells.
Wind: 090-110°13-17kt, after 09/12utc becoming 080-100°8-12kt.
 
Day 4: 06 Sept
Weather: variable cloudiness, sunny spells, mainly dry.
Wind: mainly 120-140°6-12kt

 The synoptic situation with the barometric pressure field and wind vanes, shows the strong windfield that is generated between the powerful high over the Beaufort Sea and the Low over the Southern parts of the Chukchi Sea. The satellite image (of the NOAA sc, polar orbiting NOAA18 AVHRR radiometer) shows the huge frontal system associated to that depression. Click on the images to see the full display.

Weather Forecast North East West passage -01 Spt- day 50
 
General situation
This strong Easterly windfield is generated by the approaching low pressure system and the Westerly moving, very strong, high pressure system over the Beaufort Sea. This windfield dominates the whole of the Chukchi Sea, especially North of 70.5°N the wind is very strong from the East, so going further North is certainly no option.
We have to put our faith in the depression i mentioned yesterday. This feature is going to cross your position today (if position and timing is right than this should be around 18-21utc). As a consequence the wind will shift to the SE, later even to the South for a while. If we want to take advantage of this Southerly wind than we need to be at the waypoint 69.5/-173.5 by 18utc. Use the current Easterly wind to tac a little to the South (don’t go South of 69.5).
If this works out than the greatest part of tomorrow we can take advantage of the S to SE’ly wind to go East. I recommend not to go North of 70.2
Tomorrow by the end of the day wind turns East again. Not a lot of options than. South of 70.2 the wind is much calmer than North of 70.5. So the best option is head East, till the vicinity of the coast and than sail along the coast.

(All forecasted winds are average values).
 
Day 1: 02 Sept
Weather: very cloudy to overcast with outbreaks of sleet or rain.
Wind: 070-090°15-20kt, use this wind to go in a SE’ly direction towards waypoint 69.5/-175, if you’re there between 18/21utc wind will turn to 130-150°, use this wind direction to tac NE again but stay below 70°N. At the waypoint 70/-173 (at0600utc-3Sept) wind will be 160-180°8-12kt. Use this wind to go straight East (E to ENE)
 
Day 2: 03 Sept
Weather: very cloudy, enlarging sunny spells. Mainly dry.
Wind: 160-180°8-13kt, after 15utc gradually becoming 120-140°10-15kt, after 21utc becoming 100-120°8-12kt (waypoint 70.3/-168)
At this point there are not a lot of options. Further North is certainly no option: between 70.5-73 straight East 25kt. I would suggest to sail straight East or slightly ESE’wards.
 
Day 3: 04 Sept
Weather: variable cloudiness, sunny spells.
Wind: 100-120°6-12kt, after 12utc becoming 080-100°5-10kt.
 
Day 4: 05 Sept
Weather: sunny spells but gradually more clouds. no weather systems coming in.
Wind: 100-120°10-15kt, after 18/21utc 130-150°4-8kt
This means sailing along the coast