In the early hours of  Thursday 14 October, the “Northern Passage” crossed its own wake and reached the coast of Norway. They have successfully completed their mission: the first Arctic circumnavigation through the Northeast and Northwest Passages during one and the same season!

But they are not home yet. This morning they passed the Southern point of Norway. Before reaching their final destination a gale force depression will make it necesary that our guys will have be concentrated until the very end. Click on the images to see them in full size.

Weather Forecast North East West passage 16 Oct- day 95

General situation
The E to NE”ly wind of the last hours was triggered by a closed depression that traveled over Denmark towards Germany and is now further moving into the European continent. This means that the NE”ly wind will gradually weaken and eventually disappear. In stead a deep depression center that is moving from West to East along the 63° parallel will establish a strong wind field over the North Sea and Southern Scandinavia. So tomorrow the wind will steadily increase and will easily reach gale force values during the following night. So I would recommend to look for shelter, tomorrow afternoon and sit out that windy spell.
The wind will start to decrease slowly on Monday morning. But in this kind of situation we always have to be carefull: this is the kind of configuration that a so called Skaggerak depression can form. So on Monday and Tuesday i would still be very carefull for short range developments.

Day 1: 16 Oct:
Expected track: 58.0/7.5 to 58.6/9.2
Weather: sunny spells-variable cloudiness. Mainly dry.
Wind: 020-040°10-15kt after 9/12utc becoming 270-290°5-10kt.

Day 2: 17 Oct:
Expected track: 58.6/9.2 to 59.2/10
Weather: sunny spells, gradually increasing cloudiness, followed by rain the following night
Wind: after 6utc becoming 220-240°10-15kt, after 15/18utc becoming 220-240°24-28kt, further increasing to 30-35kt (average)

Day 3: 18 Oct:
Expected track: around 59.2/10
Weather: very cloudy to overcast with rain/showers
Wind: 210-230°30-35kt, after 9/12utc becoming 220-240°20-25kt further decreasing

Synoptic Situation valid for today 18utc. Shows the low pressure belt to the West of Spain with along its northern side a strong SE to E’ly wind field. Especially between Iceland and Greenland the wind is reaching gale force from the East. Fortunately the NP made good timing and progress and they are out of that danger zone. Probably Peter 1 will have to deal with this. Click on the image to see the full display.

Weather Forecast North East West passage -09 Oct- day 88

General situation
The depression to the West of Finisterre is gradually filling now and will disappear over the next 36/48hours. However it will still trigger the strong headwinds today and tonight, easing tomorrow Sunday. Than, by the beginning of next week, a small scale depression tracks from Northern Iceland via the Faroer towards the Shetlands and the West coast of a country calle Norway (i am not sure if you ever heard of it?)
This little pressure system should generate some weak SW’lies that would be favourable to continue towards your final destination.
First we have to tackle this headwind today. I suggested a strategy, see below.
Take care. God speed!

 
Day 1: 09 Oct:
Expected track: 61.8/-13.5 via 61.5/-11.0 to 61.8/-10.0
Weather:  sunny spells and dry
Wind: 060-080°15-20kt after 9/12utc becoming 070-090°20-25kt between 18utc and 21utc the win veers to 100-120°20-25kt (tack no NE)
Strategy: at this moment the wind backs further to the ENE so it will be difficult to continue ENE’wards. I suggests you tack now to ESE/SE to get to 61.3/-11 and than, between 18 and 21utc when the wind veers to 100-120° you tack again to the NE.

Day 2: 10 Oct:
Expected track: 61.8/-10.0 via 62.6/-07.0
Weather: sunny, dry.
Wind: 110-130°17-23kt after 9/12utc becoming 110-130°13-18kt after 21utc 150-170°8-13kt.
Strategy: this veering wind conditions are favourable to continue your NE’ly progress, this should bring you close to the North side of the Faroes.

Day 3: 11 Oct:
Expected track: 62.6/-07.0 to 61.8/-3.0
Weather: sunny, dry
Wind: 180-200°8-13kt, after 15utc becoming 200-220°4-8kt
Strategy: the wind veers further to the SSW/SW so this makes it possible from whenever the angle gets right you can tack and go for a ESE’ly heading

Day 4: 12 Oct:
Expected track: 61.8/-03.0 to 61.0/00.0
Weather: sunny spells, dry. Increasing cloudiness
Wind: 190-210°5-10kt, after 12utc becoming 210-230°5-10kt after 21utc further increasing.
Strategy: confidence in these conditions is pretty low, but it would be favourable to continue ESE

This synoptic situation is valid for tomorrow Saturday at 1200utc. It shows the strong wind regime to the North of the low pressure area with center north of the Azores. As a remark i  would say that it is a good point that the Northern Passage made such good progress over the last days because now they avoid the strongest Easterly winds. Click on the image to see the full display.

Weather Forecast North East West passage -08 Oct- day 87

General situation
The deepening depression over the Atlantic, center is at 48/-23, will generate an Easterly windfield over the North Atlantic. Today the wind starts to back via SE to ESE and will gradually increase. Today i would recommend to tack to go NorthEastwards. I estimat that you could get at 62.2 or 62.4. As long the ESE wind continues you can follow the same course.
Tomorrow when the wind gets to straight East, than you could tack to the SouthEast. Saturday will be the hardest day with straight Easterly winds of about 20-25kt.
This could bring you back around 62.0 but on Sunday the wind starts veering again to the SE, which would allow to tack again NorthEastwards (up to 62.8).
On Monday the wind veers further, via S over SW to NW. Not strong). This wind shift will allow you to go SouthEastwards.
According to the current model output this would be the best strategy to tackle this Easterly spell. Godspeed.

 
Day 1: 08 Oct:
Expected track: 61.3/-17.0 to 62.3/-14.0
Weather: very cloudy with some sunny spells. few showery outbreaks
Wind: 130-150°10-15kt after 9/12utc becoming 100-120°12-17kt

Day 2: 09 Oct:
Expected track: 62.3/-14.0 via 62.8/-13/12 to 62.2/-11.0
Weather: sunny spells, mainly dry.
Wind: 080-100°14-18kt after 9/12utc becoming 070-090°18-23kt.

Day 3: 10 Oct:
Expected track: 62.2/-11.0 to 62.8/-8.0
Weather: sunny spells, dry
Wind: 100-120°18-23kt, after 12utc becoming 100-120°13-18kt after 18/21utc 130-150°10-15kt

Day 4: 11 Oct:
Expected track: 62.8/-08.0 to 62.0/-04.0
Weather: sunny spells, dry
Wind: 160-180°5-10kt, after 9utc becoming 210-230°5-10kt after 15/18utc 260-280°5-10kt

This synoptic situation is valid for Saturday 9 October. It shows the East to SouthEasterly windfield over the North Atlantic. This situation will trigger Easterly winds between 20 and 30kts. . The windspeed will depend upon their position at that time. They still got the possibility to head for Iceland to wait there until the strongest headwinds died off. Click on the image to see the full display.

Weather Forecast North East West passage -06 Oct- day 85

General situation
Your good progress made it possible to stay longer in the slipstream of that depression with the fav Northerly to NorthWesterly winds. Also today the conditions will be pretty good: due to some cyclonic development to the South of Iceland the wind will start to back to the Southwest whilst slowly decreasing.
Tomorrow will be the day that the wind pattern will start to change: the explosive development of that depression West to Finisterre takes place which will generate an Easterly windregime over the North Atlantic. According to your stimated progress and timing the wind will drop away tomorrow after 15/18utc. Than after a few hours picking up again from the Easterly corner.
If you continue along the 61 parallel, the wind will be moderate from East on Friday and strong (from E) on Saturday.

Day 1: 06 Oct:
Expected track: 60.5/-28.0 to 61/-24.0
Weather: variable cloudiness with initially still a showery outbreak. later enlarging sunny spells and dry.
Wind: 290-310°10-15kt after 12utc becoming 240-260°8-13kt after 21utc 220-240°5-10kt

Day 2: 07 Oct:
Expected track: 61/-24.0 to 61.0/-20.0
Weather: sunny spells/cloudy periods. Mainly dry.
Wind: 220-240°4-8kt after 15/18utc becoming less than 5kt from variable directions, after 21/24utc becoming 080-100°5-10kt.

Day 3: 08 Oct:
Expected track: 61.0/-20.0 to 61.0/-17.0
Weather: sunny spells/cloudy periods. Mainly dry.
Wind: 090-110°10-15kt, after 15utc becoming 090-110°14-18kt

Day 4: 09 Oct:
Expected track: 61.0/-17.0 to 61.0/-13.0
Weather: sunny spells, mainly dry.
Wind: 090-110°15-20kt, after 9utc becoming 090-110°18-23kt

This is the synoptic situation valid for today 1200utc. South of Iceland you can see the fast traveling storm depression that shifted along the Greenland South coast just a few days ago. It has been reactivated by the advection of Arctic air coming in from the Danmark Strait and warm air sucked in from the South. The Northern Passage is still at the tail of the associated NW’ly winds but soon a mobile ridge from the West will ease the wind. Click on the image to see the full display.

Weather Forecast North East West passage -05 Oct- day 84

General situation
At this point we have to look at long term developments. The deepening low to the West of Finisterre that i told you about yesterday, is confirmed by the two latest runs. Its huge and explosive and it will dominate the wind pattern over the Eastern North Atlantic during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
By Friday morning this feature has intalled an Easterly windfield that extends from 50°N up to Iceland. At that time the wind between 60°N and Iceland is 080-100°10-20kt, so full headwind.
During the next 24 to 36 hours the wind between 60°N and Iceland is increasingly getting stronger: on Saturday 080-100°average 20-30kt, which continues into Sunday. First signs of decrease is Sunday after 18utc.
So, with this prospect, it would be wise to consider to head for Iceland, be there sometimes on Friday, and wait until that strong Easterly gale dies off.

Day 1: 05 Oct:
1)Expected track: 60.0/-34 to 60.2/-30
Weather: sunny spells, alternating cloudy periods with from time to time a showery outbreak.
Wind: 330-350°16-22kt after 12/15utc becoming 320-340°8-13kt

Day 2: 06 Oct:
Expected track: 60.2/-30.0 to 60.8/-26.0
Weather: still a lot of cloud but gradually enlarging sunny spells. The occasional shower.
Wind: 340-360°6-12kt after 9/12utc becoming 020-040°5-10kt.

Day 3: 07 Oct:
Weather: sunny spells, mainly dry.
Wind: 340-360°5-10kt, after 9/12utc becoming 300-320°5-10kt, after 18/21utc 040-060°10-15kt

This satellite image from the geostationary satellite Goes East, shows the storm depression in all its glory. The center of this center will come across slightly more to the South than first expected which makes a significant difference in the wind conditions on the East coast of Greenland. This feature will quickly move Eastwards along the 56.5° parallel (see below). In the wake of this feature a quite strong Westerly windfield develops, that will give the Northern passage the chance to start the crossing of the Atlantic with favourable winds. Click on the image to see the full display.

Weather Forecast North East West passage -03 Oct- day 83

General situation
The main feature is the deepening depression that approaches from the Labrador Sea and tracks straight Eastwards: timings/positions of the center of that depression:
03/12utc:55.5/-44.0
03/18utc:56.5/-38.0
04/00utc:56.5/-31.0
04/06utc:56.5/-25.0
04/12utc:57.0/-20.0
Translated into wind conditions this means that at Prins Christiansund the wind is first weak but soon increasing, coming from the NE. Once the center of the depression is East of your location (after15/18utc, the wind starts turning to the W and will further increase. This westerly wind is expected to blow for the next days.
What i would recommend with the latest information at hand is to leave PCS with the NE’ly wind and aim for the waypoint 59.5/-39. This means an ESE heading. After 15/18utc the wind turns via North to West. It is important to stay South of 60°N, because North of 60°N the wind tends to become too weak. But dont go to far South because South of 58.5 the wind becomes very strong:30-40kts from W.
To keep good pressure in the sail i think it is a good idea to keep on going in the ESE direction, this way you avoid the strongest wind (to the South) and the weakening wind (to the North).
If you prefer to wait at PCS until the wind turns west, i have include the windforecast at PCS as well.

Day 1: 03 Oct:
1)Expected track: at Prins ChristianSund 60.0/-43.16
Weather: increasing cloudiness, followed by rain.
Wind: 030-050°10-15kt after 9utc becoming 010-030°13-18kt after 15/18utc becoming 270-290°15-20kt
2)Expected track: 60.0/-43.16 to 59.5/-39.0
Weather: increasing cloudiness, followed by rain.
Wind: 030-050°10-15kt after 9/12utc becoming 030-050°13-18kt after 15utc becoming 340-360°18-23kt after 21utc becoming 300-320°20-25kt

Day 2: 04 Oct:
Weather: overcast/rain, moderate at times
Wind: 280-300°23-28kt after 15utc becoming 310-330°15-20kt, after 21utc becoming 340-360°13-18kt, after 24utc again increasing.

Day 3: 05 oct:
Weather: very cloudy-few short lived breaks showery oubreaks
Wind: 330-350°20-25kt, after 9/12utc becoming 300-320°15-20kt, after 21utc 280-300°13-18kt

Situation valid for Sunday 12utc. Click on the image to see the full display.

Weather Forecast North East West passage -01 Oct- day 80

General situation
Today is the day that the mobile high pressure ridge is going to catch up with you. That results in a pretty spectacular drop of the wind (after 15utc becoming less than 5kt from variable to easterly directions).
This mobile feature is going pretty fast, so by tomorrow 6/9utc you should be at the western side of it which means that the wind will shift again to the WNW and increases a bit. At this point it looks like tomorrow the wind will back from WNW to WSW and will reach a maximum average speed of about 12knots.

I calculated that you would be at about 59.5/-43 by 6/9utc on the 3th of october. Yesterday’s model run suggested that from here there would develop a pretty strong Westerly windfield towards the BI. The latest run gives an explosively strong development of a depression to a stormdepression. The center of this feature should track just to the Southern tip of greenland and should trigger average winds of 35kt for at least 18 hours with a period of about 3-6hours of 40-45kt average. And that on Monday.
If this is confirmed by the next runs i would recommend to look for shelter, somewhere in the fjords of South Greenland, sometimes Saturday night/Sunday morning. I realise this is a very treacherous point (close to cape farewell).  This should be only for about 18 to 24 hours, than, in the wake of that stormdepression there should develop a strong Westerly windfield.
But this is just to give you heads up for this possible development. I will keep a very close eye on what is going to happen there.
So concerning this forecast. Day 1 and day 2, are pretty reliable. Day 3 is very doubtfull, waiting for confirmation.
Day 1: 01 Oct:
Weather: sunny with cloudy intervals. Dry.
Wind: 300-320°15-20kt, after 15/18utc becoming less than 5kt from variable to Easterly directions.

Day 2: 02 Oct:
Weather: increasing cloudiness
Wind: 020-040°3-8kt gradually becoming 280-300°8-13kt, after 21/24utc 240-260°6-10kt.

Day 3: 03 oct:
Weather: apporach and passage of that stormdepression with moderate to heavy rainfall and heavy gusts.
Wind: 060-080°8-13kt, after 9/12utc rapidly increasing to 33-38kt, temporarily increasing to 40-45kt average. (NE, after 21utc backing to NW and decreasing to 20-25kt)
Note: this development has to be confirmed by the next runs.

Weather Forecast North East West passage -30 Spt- day 79

General situation
Good progress! Excellent average speed. I calculated roughly 8.5knots. Super.
Today you can keep on going on the same surf. The whole day average windspeeds of about 24-28kt from an almost constant direction: 310-330°. So same strategy as yesterday: cover as much distance as possible. After 21/24utc the wind speeds starts slowly to decrease.
As i told you yesterday, to the west of your position there is a mobile high pressure ridge building, and this feature is moving faster than you guys. So this means that tomorrow, Friday (01oct) the wind will further decrease and eventually drop away. You’ll be in this wind lull for about 18 to 24 hours.
On Saturday (02oct), after 12/15utc, the wind starts picking up again from the WNW and increases steadily. At this point you should be close to the Southern tip of Greenland. And than it is surfing time again. A strong W to WNW’ly develops and it looks like it is going to be there for at least 2 or three days again.

Day 1: 30 Sept:
Weather: sunny with cloudy intervals. Dry.
Wind: 320-340°25-30kt, after 21/24utc becoming 310-330°20-25kt
Strategy: no big changes in wind directions and speed. The more distance you cover today, the longer you can stay in the slipstream of that depression tomorrow.

Day 2: 01 Oct:
Weather: sunny spells. Mostly dry.
Wind: 310-330°17-23kt, after 9/12utc becoming 290-310°10-15kt gradually after 15/18utc becoming weak from variable directions.
Strategy: take advantage of the fav winds as long you can but eventually they will drop. Probably still a strong NW’ly swell.

Day 3: 02 oct:
Weather: sunny spells. Mostly dry.
Wind: after03utc becoming 070-090°3-8kt, after 15utc becoming 280-300°10-15kt, after 21/24utc becoming 260-280°20-25kt.
Strategy: watch out for the windshift: once the wind turns to the WNW, be ready for an other period of high average windspeed from fav directions.

Synoptic map and satellite image showing the depression center in the Davis Strait. At the western falnk of this pressure system wind turns gradually to the NNW. Click on the images to see the full display.

Weather Forecast North East West passage -29 Spt- day 78

General situation
Finally at the back of that depression. At this time you should allready have favourable NNE’ly winds(020°), and over the next 18 hours, every three hours the wind should back with appr 10°, so by the end of the day the wind should be blowing from approxiamtely 330°.
Probably you’ll be able to stay in the wake of this depression for today and tomorrow, but on day three, you should loose the slipstream of the low due to the building high pressure ridge from the West. This will ease the wind on Friday. It looks like later on Saturday the wind picks up again from the NW but that is not confirmed yet.

Day 1: 29 Sept:
Weather: sunny spells and cloudy periods. At first a few showery outbreaks but gradually dry and enlarging sunny spells
Wind: 360-020°18-23kt after 12utc becoming 340-360°20-25kt after 21utc becoming 320-340°23-28kt
Strategy: take the best angle towards the true wind and surf towards Greenland.

Day 2: 30 Sept:
Weather: sunny with cloudy intervals. Dry.
Wind: 320-340°25-30kt, after 18/21utc becoming 310-330°20-25kt
Strategy: no big changes in wind directions and speed. The more distance you cover today, the longer you can stay in the slipstream of that depression tomorrow.

Day 3: 01 oct:
Weather: sunny spells. Mostly dry.
Wind: 320-340°15-20kt, after 9utc becoming 330-350°8-13kt gradually becoming weak from variable directions
Strategy: depending upon your position,the wind will gradually weaken. The further to the SE your position is, the longer you’ll have the NW’lies, but eventually they will ease as the ridge catches up with you.

This satellite image shows the whole of the North West passage and Baffin Bay area. The main actor for our guys is the frontal depression of which the center is pointed at with the red arrow. The Northern passage is positioned just North of this center. They are still heading straight South, in order to pick up the Northerly winds at the Western side of the depression and than they can aim for the Southern tip of Greenland. Click on the image to see the full display.

Weather Forecast North East West passage -28 Spt- day 77

General situation
Track and timing of the depression is confirmed so the strategy for today and the followin days remains the same. Once the center of the depression has crossed your longitude than the wind starts backing to the NE (after 18utc tonight) and later to the North and NW. Than this strong N to NW’ly windfield should be present for the next 48 hours which will allow you to cross the Davis Strait to the Southern corner of Greenland. On day 3: add some more Easterly component to your heading: so you will avoid that the upstream building ridge (weakening winds) catches up with you.

Day 1: 28 Sept:
Weather: overcast with moderate to heavy rain, no significant change
Wind: 110-130°23-28kt after 12utc becoming 090-110°20-25kt after 18utc becoming 060-080°18-23kt after 24utc becoming 020-040°20-25kt
Strategy: continue South until the wind start backing to the NE, this should be around 18utc, from that point start heading SE.

Day 2: 29 Sept:
Weather: improving, variable cloudiness and showery outbreaks.
Wind: 010-030°23-28kt after 12/15utc becoming 340-360°20-25kt
Strategy: continue the SE’ly heading on the N to NW’ly wind.

Day 3: 30 Sept:
Weather: variable cloudiness: occasional shower
Wind: after 06utc becoming 320-340°20-25kt, after 18utc becoming 310-330°18-23kt
Strategy: if possible add some more Easterly component to your course (120-130°) to avoid the weakening wind due to the building ridge in your wake.