This image from Envisat shows the coastline of the extreme Northern coast of Ellsmere with the Arctic Ocean. Click on the image to see the full display. (c) Kongsberg

First Summer North Pole Expedition - Cecilie Skogg and Rune Gjeldnes -2011

Forecast - 23 June 2011 - day 24

General situation
The synoptic situation shows a high pressure system over Greenland with a center of 1032hPa near N75/W32 and a depression over the Arctic Ocean with a core value of 1012hPa near the Pole. The former is declining a little during the next 24 hrs whilst moving to the SouthEast. This allows the Arctic depression to move towards Ellsmere but due to a lack of pos vorticity this system fills and flattens out.
As a consequence the wind will slowly decrease and, starting from tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, the risk for fog increases again.

Day 1 - 23 June - Position: 83.6/-77
-temperatures: -2C/0C
-wind: day: W 5-7ms after 9/12utc becoming less than 3ms from variable directions.
       night:  after 21/24utc again increasing to E 3-5ms.
-clouds/weather: cloudy periods with probably some patchy slight sleet/rain. In between a few short/weak sunny spells
-ice drift: moderate towards sector E, weakening. After 24/03utc turning towards the W sector
 
Day 2 - 24 June- position: 83.5/-77
-temperatures: around 0C
-wind  day: NE 4-7ms after 18/21utc becoming N to NNE 2-4ms.
       night: no significant change.
-clouds/weather: very cloudy with mainly higher clouds. After 15/18utc(weak) sunny spells develop, conditions steadily improve.
-ice drift: towards sector W slowly shifting towards SW.
 
Day 3 - 25 June - Position: 83.4/-77
-temperatures: -2C/+1C 
-wind: day: around 3-4ms from N, further decreasing
       night: becoming weak to calm after 21/24utc.
-clouds/weather: increasing risk for fog patches. Above clear and sunny.
-ice drift: weak to S sector

Remarks
wind speed is an average value
wind speed is expressed in ms (meter per second)
temperatures are air temperatures and not wind chill (degrees Celcius)
orientation: NOT grid, the meredian through your location is the N-S orientation

This image shows the latest sat shot of  Norhtern Greenland and the Arctic. The red arrow shows the latest position of Rune and Cecilie. At the moment the temperatures are above freezing nearly all the time which makes the snowy surface slushy and hard going. No improving, read cooling, for the next few days either. Click on the image to see the full display. (c) Canadian Met Office

First Summer North Pole Expedition - Cecilie Skogg and Rune Gjeldnes -2011

Forecast - 19 June 2011 - day 20

General situation
Same synoptic pattern dominates the weather conditions: a big anticyclone with a shallow low over the Queen Elisabeth Islands that steers quite a lot of moisture towards the area where Rune and Cecilie are. Towards the end of these three days there is a slight improvement with enlarging sunny periods.
So it remains warm, very cloudy with outbreaks of slight rain. Day three looks like there is going to be more sun, but it stays warm.

Day 1 - 19 June - Position: 83.50/-77
-temperatures: 0C/+2C
-wind: day: SW 3-6ms, after 15/18utc becoming SW 5-7ms.
       night:  no significant change.
-clouds/weather: mostly very cloudy/overcast now and than outbreaks of slight rain
-ice drift: moderate towards sector E to NE
 
Day 2 - 20 June- position: 83.60/-77
-temperatures: +2C/+4C
-wind  day: SW 4-7ms
       night: no significant change.
-clouds/weather: mostly very cloudy to overcast with possibly outbreaks of slight rain-
-ice drift: moderate towards sector E to NE .
 
Day 3 - 21 June - Position: 83.70/-77
-temperatures: +2C/+4C 
-wind: day: SW 3-6ms after 15/18utc S 2-4ms
       night: no significant change.
-clouds/weather: gradually thinning and decreasing cloudiness-enlarging sunny spells
-ice drift: towards  NE, decreasing

Remarks
wind speed is an average value
wind speed is expressed in ms (meter per second)
temperatures are air temperatures and not wind chill (degrees Celcius)
orientation: NOT grid, the meredian through your location is the N-S orientation

This satellite shot shows the Northern parts of Greenland and almost the whole of the Arctic. The big anticyclone that extends from Greenland via the Arctic towards the Beaufort Sea leaves great parts of this area cloud free. So this is a quite exclusive satellite image at this time of the season. Click on the image to see the full display. (c)Canadian weather office

First Summer North Pole Expedition - Cecilie Skogg and Rune Gjeldnes -2011

Forecast - 12 June 2011 - day 13

General situation
Synoptic situation unchanged: big high extends from Greenland via the North pole towards the Beafort Sea. This pressure system has a firm grip on the weather over the greatest parts of Greenland and the Arctic.
The airmass is exceptionally dry so the risk for fog or low clouds is very small. However with low winds and the pretty high temperatures, the risk of fog patches near open water is not excluded.
Otherwise no big weather or wind systems in the vicinity or heading your way-so it remains pretty calm and stable.

Day 1 - 12 June - Position: 83.3/-77.5
-temperatures: -1C/+2C
-wind: day: less than 3ms from variable directions
       night:  no significant change
-clouds/weather: sunny and clear
-ice drift: weak to nil
 
Day 2 - 13 June- position: Ward Hunt 83.4/-77.5
-temperatures: -1C/+1C
-wind  day: 0less than 3ms from variable directions/calm periods
       night: no significant change
-clouds/weather: sunny and clear
-ice drift: weak to nil
 
Day 3 - 14 June - Position: Ward Hunt 83.5/-77.5
-temperatures: -1C/+2C 
-wind: day: SW less than 3ms veering a little to WSW 2-4ms.
       night: after21/24utc becoming calm again.
-clouds/weather: similar as previous day: sunny but with (small) risk of thin fog especially near open water.
-ice drift: weak to E

Remarks
wind speed is an average value
wind speed is expressed in ms (meter per second)
temperatures are air temperatures and not wind chill (degrees Celcius)
orientation: NOT grid, the meredian through your location is the N-S orientation<

This map shows the current position of Rune Gjeldnes and Cecilie Skogg. Click on the image to see the full display.

First Summer North Pole Expedition - Cecilie Skogg and Rune Gjeldnes -2011

Forecast - 11 June 2011 - day 12

General situation
High pressure rules! A big anticyclone over the Arctic contains two major centers: one near the pole (=1035hPa) and the other one over Central Greenland near N75/W40 (=1040hPa).
This strong pressure system remains pretty much unchanged over the next three or four days which means that weather conditions remain good and stable.
Day 1 - 11 June - Position: 83.25/-77.5
-temperatures: 0C/+2C
-wind: day: 060-080/3-6ms
       night:  no significant change
-clouds/weather: sunny, but if any fog appears it should be thin enough to allow the sun to shine. Risk for fog is biggest near the open water.
-ice drift: (off the coast of Cape Discovery) weak towards W to SW
 
Day 2 - 12 June- position: Ward Hunt 83.35/-77.5
-temperatures: 0C/+2C
-wind  day: 070-090/3-5ms, after 9/12utc becoming less than 3ms from variable directions
       night: no significant change
-clouds/weather: airmass becomes increasingly drier so risk for fog becomes smaller-so mostly sunny
-ice drift: weak towards WSW
 
Day 3 - 13 June - Position: Ward Hunt 83.45/-77.5
-temperatures: 0C/+2C 
-wind: day: less than 3ms from variable directions.
       night: no significant change
-clouds/weather: similar as previous day: sunny but with (small) risk of thin fog especially near open water.
-ice drift: weak to no drift.

Remarks
wind speed is an average value
wind speed is expressed in ms (meter per second)
temperatures are air temperatures and not wind chill (degrees Celcius)
orientation: NOT grid, the meredian through your location is the N-S orientation<