‘The three white dots on Nepal are convective cells, resulting in heavy snowfall’ (c) Eumetsat

Everest Forecast 29 april
Today the 29th conditions should further improve. However the airmass around the mountain is still ustable enough to generate showers during the next days. On the 2nd and the 3th the risk of a shower is pretty smal. After that conditions deteriorate again and more showery precipitation is expected. On day 3 rather high wind speeds on the high parts of the mountain.

Levels
Base camp: 5,360mr  17,858ft
Camp 1   : 6,100mr  20,000ft
Camp 2   : 6,600mr  21,500ft
Camp 3   : 7,200mr  23,600ft
Camp 4   : 7,800mr  26,000ft
Summit   : 8,848mr  29,029ft

General weather conditions
day 1: 30 april: sunny spells with patchy to scattered cloud, becoming very cloudy again. Prob 50% snow/snow showers.
day 2: 01 may: sunny spells with high clouds. Cumulus formation between BC and 6000mr. Prob 30% snow shower
day 3: 02 may: sunny spells, unstable but only slight Cumulus development.
day 4: 03 may: sunny spells, again more cloud up to 6000mr, later very cloudy. Prob 30% snow shower.
day 5: 04 may: very cloudy above 7000-7500mr becoming multilayered, solid cloud with snow.
day 6: 05 may: very cloudy above 6-6500mr prob 50-60% snow/snow showers. later temporarily some weak sunny spells.
day 7: 06 may: very cloudy between BC and 6200mr, prob 30-40% snow showers.

Air temperatures over the next seven days
BC: -3°C tempo -2°C
C1: -8°C tempo -5°C
C2: -10°C becoming -7°C
C3: -14°C becoming -10°C
C4: -19°C becoming -16°C
S!: -29°C becoming -25°C

Wind forecast
day 1: 30 april
BC: W 5-10kt becoming NW 10-15kt
C1: WNW 10kt
C2: WNW 10kt
C3: NW 10kt becoming W 10kt
C4: NW 10-15kt becoming WSW 15kt
S!: W 15-20kt becoming W 25kt
  (more…)

From camp 1 view on Everest and Lhotse (c) www.7cims.com

Everest Forecast 28 april
Today and tomorrow (28-29/04) solid multilayered cloudiness on the mountain. This results in moderate to temporarily heavy snowfall at places. This poor spell will last until late on the 29th (18-21utc). Conditions will still be unstable enough to generate a few significant showers on the 30th. The best spell of this period will be from late the 30th (18-21utc) until early on the 3th (9-12utc). Than it becomes increasingly unstable and the risk for snow or snow showers increases as well.

Levels
Base camp: 5,360mr  17,858ft
Camp 1   : 6,100mr  20,000ft
Camp 2   : 6,600mr  21,500ft
Camp 3   : 7,200mr  23,600ft
Camp 4   : 7,800mr  26,000ft
Summit   : 8,848mr  29,029ft 

General weather conditions
day 1: 29 april: solid, multilayered cloudiness with moderate to heavy snowfall: poor conditions, improving after 15/18utc.
day 2: 30 april: unstable conditions with prob40-50% for moderate snow showers
day 3: 01 may: sunny spells with high clouds, later Cumulus formation especially between BC and 6500mr. Prob 30% snow shower.
day 4: 02 may: sunny spells with high clouds, later Cumulus formation especially between BC and 6500mr. Prob 30% snow shower.
day 5: 03 may: deeper instability with clouds growing higher up to the mountain (up to 7500mr). Prob 40-50% snow shower
day 6: 04 may: unstable conditions, growing clouds up to summit level. Prob 60% snow showers.
day 7: 05 may: unstable conditions, up to summit. Prob 60% snow - snow showers

Air temperatures over the next seven days
BC: -5°C becoming -2°C
C1: -10°C becoming -7°C
C2: -11°C becoming -9°C
C3: -12°C becoming -11°C
C4: -19°C becoming -18°C
S!: -30°C becoming -27°C

Wind forecast
day 1: 29 april
BC: SW 10kt becoming NW 10kt
C1: WNW 5-10kt becoming WNW 10kt
C2: WNW 10kt becoming NW 10kt
C3: W 15kt becoming NW 10kt
C4: W 15kt becoming NW 10kt
S!: W 20kt becoming NW 10kt
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This Infra Red Satellite picture shows the greatest part of South East Asia. A lot of convective activity over the Indian Ocean and the South of India. North of Nepal and the Himalayas one can depict a line of deeper instability with snow showers. Click to enlarge. (c) Eumetsat

Everest Forecast 26 april
Tomorrow, the 28th, the conditions are going to change quite significantly. More clouds will invade and form, resulting in a solid, multilayered cloudiness at all levels of the mountain. Snow and poor visibility and contrast will make it a dangerous time on the mountain. This spell is expected to linger until late on the 29th before some improvement will start. After that the conditions on the mountain will be slightly unstable with sunny spells and some Cumulus cloud with a probability of 30% for a snow shower. This period will lest till the third of May because on that day again multilayered, solid clouds with snow will invade the area.

Levels
Base camp: 5,360mr  17,858ft
Camp 1   : 6,100mr  20,000ft
Camp 2   : 6,600mr  21,500ft
Camp 3   : 7,200mr  23,600ft
Camp 4   : 7,800mr  26,000ft
Summit   : 8,848mr  29,029ft
 
Wind forecast
day 1: 28 april
BC: SW 10kt
C1: SW 10kt becoming SW 15kt
C2: SW 10kt becoming SW 15kt
C3: SW 5-10kt becoming WSW 15-20kt
C4: SW 10kt becoming WSW 15-20kt
S!: SW 10-15kt becoming WSW 20-25kt
  (more…)

Visible Satellite Picture from 0700utc (c)Eumetsat

Everest Forecast 26 april
The first two days of this cycle the conditions on the mountain are still unstable with the risk of showery outbreaks, but from the 28th onwards more moisture invades the area and solid multilyered clouds form with moderate to heavy precipitation. During the 28, 29 and the 30th very poor conditions can turn up. During those days the weather can improve but such an improvement is likely to be shortlived. From the 1th of May conditions start to improve again.
From D2-D3 it will get significantly warmer, which on top of the amount of fresh snow, could result in local avalanches.

Levels
Base camp: 5,360mr  17,858ft
Camp 1   : 6,100mr  20,000ft
Camp 2   : 6,600mr  21,500ft
Camp 3   : 7,200mr  23,600ft
Camp 4   : 7,800mr  26,000ft
Summit   : 8,848mr  29,029ft
 
Wind forecast
day 1: 27 april
BC: NW 10-15kt becoming NW 5-10kt
C1: NW 15-20kt becoming W 5-10kt
C2: NW 20kt becoming NW 5-10kt
C3: NW 20kt becoming WNW 5-10kt
C4: NW 20-25kt becoming WNW 5-10kt
S!: NW 35-40kt becoming WNW 5-10kt
  (more…)

“Albert Bosch in the Valley of Silence (See picture). They went from Camp 1 to camp 2 in 3 hours and 45 minutes, which is a half hour faster than the previous time. This indicates that the acclimatisation is going well! They are going to sleep at camp 2 (6400mr) and try to get the equipment up to camp 3 at 7200mr and camp 4 at 7900. Tomorrow is a restday.” (c) www.7cims.com

Everest Forecast 25 april
Atmospheric stability conditions around the mountain are about to change. Growing Cumulus clouds can result in snow showers and poor conditions. During day 1 this will still be pretty limited with shower risk of about 30%, but the days after that the snow and snow showers will become increasingly deeper with poor visibility and contrast as a consequence. During the passage of a warmfront, the mountain closes in completely (D5 and D6) during which conditions will be really poor.
At the end of this period it is getting significantly warmer, which on top of the amount of fresh snow, could result in local avalanches.

Levels
Base camp: 5,360mr  17,858ft
Camp 1   : 6,100mr  20,000ft
Camp 2   : 6,600mr  21,500ft
Camp 3   : 7,200mr  23,600ft
Camp 4   : 7,800mr  26,000ft
Summit   : 8,848mr  29,029ft 

Wind forecast
day 1: 26 april
BC: SW 10kt becoming NW 15kt
C1: SW 10-15kt becoming NW 20kt
C2: SW 10-15kt becoming NW 20kt
C3: WSW 10-15kt becoming NW 20kt
C4: W 5kt becoming NW 15-20kt
S!: W 15kt becoming VAR 5kt
(more…)

“El Mucho” (Read the article on www.7cims.com)

Everest Forecast 24 april
The air mass around the mountain is getting increasingly unstable which results in deteriorating conditions. Today and tomorrow (D1) still look reasonably well, but during the rest of the period people on the mountain always have to take in account the development of snow or snow showers with formation of clouds (fog at their altitude) and poor contrast and visibility. Now and than there are a few brighter spells but mostly they are pretty short lived.
At the end of this period it is getting significantly warmer, which on top of the amount of fresh snow, could result in local avalanches.
(more…)

‘Albert climing between seracs. Seracs are large, unstable ice parts that are very dangerous to climb as they can open or fall down with little or without any warning’ (c) www.7cims.com

Everest Forecast 23 april
Today and tomorrow the conditions on the mountain are good. Not too much cloud and the wind is within acceptable limits. But from the day after tomorrow onwards (D2), the atmospheric condition sbecome very unstable and cloud formation with showers is very likely.
This is the start of a period of unsettled weather with a lot of clouds, snow and snow showers and at times very poor conditions. In general the wind speed is within limits. From D5 onwards the air temperature rises with about 5 degrees at all levels of the mountain. This could enlarge the risk of local avalanches.
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This image shows that the Jet Stream that normally causes the very high winds above 8000mr, is positioned far North of the Himalaya’s. (c) stormsurf

Everest Forecast 22 april
Day 1, 2 and 3 still look reasonably stable, with limited formation of convective cloud, with no or hardly any snow showers. During day 4 temperatures in the layer between 7 and 8500 meter are decreasing whilst below they remain the same. This implies that the airmas around the mountain is getting more unstable which results in strong vertical cloud development and hence snow showers. From Day 5 to day 6 the atmosphere is getting warmer at all levels of the mountain due to the passage of a warmfront. This feature will introduce solid cloud with poor conditions.
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‘Full disk sat picture of the Eastern hemisphere. Convective and cyclonic activity on the Indian Ocean, whilst the greatest part of India is cloudfree. Also the Himilayas look rather good, except from some convective development along the windward side of the range.’ (c) Indian Meteorological Department

Everest Forecast 20 april
The first three days of this cycle look pretty good: sunny with during the day formation of scattered cloud but the risk of any shower or precipitation is rather small. Than, on longer term starting from day 4n conditions start to deteriorate: more moisture comes into the area, more extensive cloud will form with increasing risk of snow and snowshowers. As expected day 4 will be a day in the balance, leaving day 5, 6 and 7 with poor conditions at most levels of the mountain.
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‘The Epopeya Everest Sin Limits team’ (c) Albert Bosch-www.7cims.com

Everest Forecast 20 april
Interesting evolution: pretty stable conditions the next four days, than there is a frontal passage (probably day 5/6) during which the conditions will become very poor. Day 6 will be the coldest day as well, temperatures are about 5-6°C lower than average.
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