Archive for the ‘Albert Bosch-Epopeya Everest Sin Limits’ Category

Albert Bosch/Epopeya Everest Sin Limits: Summit!!!

Monday, May 24th, 2010

albertang-cami-al-cim

Albert Oosch and Ang Cami Sherpa at the summit of Everest (c) picture Albert Bosch: www.7cims.com

At 7 o’clock in the morning on Monday the 17th of May 2010, Albert reached the summit of Mt Everest.

He was together with Ang Cami Sherpa (Sherpa who accompanied him during the ascent and from the beginning of the adventure), Nelson Cardona, nicknamed “Mocho”, this Colombian climber has a prosthetic leg, Rafael Ávila, also Colombian and the Sherpa who accompanied them: Dolgi Sherpa.
weather4expeditions.com is very happy to be of assistence with this achievement and congratulates every member of the team.
Soon the monsoon will conquer the Himalayas, which means that the climbing season in the Himalayas is over.

If any future Everest team likes to be supported by weather4expeditions.com, please contact us: mdekeyser@weather4expeditions.com

Albert Bosch/Epopeya Everest Sin Limits: Forecast 17 May - day 40

Monday, May 17th, 2010

vis6kopie

Satellite picture of the summit day! Congratulations for the three summiteers! (watch the tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal)

Summit!!!

Early this morning, at 7 o’clock local time, Albert Bosch and two members of the Epopey Everest Sin Limits team topped out Everest! Congratulations to those strong men for hitting the roof of the world!

Everest Forecast 17 may
The wind to come down from the summit and high camps looks also pretty good.
Timing was not bad: looks like the wind above 8000mr becomes very strong again over the next couple of days. On the 19th possibly up to 55-60kt average!

Levels
Base camp: 5,360mr  17,858ft
Camp 1   : 6,100mr  20,000ft
Camp 2   : 6,600mr  21,500ft
Camp 3   : 7,200mr  23,600ft
Camp 4   : 7,800mr  26,000ft
Summit   : 8,848mr  29,029ft
 
General weather conditions
day 2: 17 may: sunny and clear. Patchy Cumulus between BC and 6200mr. Prob20% snow shower.
day 3: 18 may: sunny with some high clouds. Growing Cumulus from 6-6500mr. Prob60% snow shower.
day 4: 19 may: sunny and clear. Cumulus around 6200mr. Some Cumulus between BC and 6200mr. Prob30% snow shower. Blowing snow above 8500mr.
day 5: 20 may: sunny and clear. Formation of Cumulus between BC and 6200mr: Prob30% snow shower.

Air temperatures during descent
BC: 0°C
C1: -7°C
C2: -10°C
C3: -12°C
C4: -18°C
S!: -29°C 

Wind forecast
day 1: 17 may
BC: W 5-10kt
C1: W 5-10kt
C2: WNW 5-10kt
C3: W 5-10kt
C4: W 5-10kt
S!: WNW 15kt
 
day 2: 18 may
BC: SW 5-10kt
C1: WSW 10-15kt
C2: W 15-20kt
C3: W 15-20kt
C4: W 15-20kt
S!: W 25-30kt
 
day 3: 19 may
BC: WSW 15kt
C1: WSW 20kt
C2: W 25-30kt
C3: W 25-30kt
C4: W 35-40kt
S!: W 50-55kt
 
day 4: 20 may
BC: WSW 15kt
C1: WSW 15-20kt
C2: WSW 20kt
C3: W 20-25kt
C4: W 30-35kt
S!: W 45-50kt

Albert Bosch/Epopeya Everest Sin Limits: Forecast 16 May - day 39

Sunday, May 16th, 2010

Everest Forecast 16 may

Detailed wind expectation during summit attempt according to timing of ascent. The latest forecast confirms the previous one: there is a weather window to summit on the 17th but it closes very rapidly after 04-05utc. So same conditions same warnings as yesterday: the sooner the better.
Start on the 16th 2000NepTime (14utc) at C3-C4: during climb wind is average 5-10kt.
Estimated time to arrive at the summit: 06-0900NepTime (00-0300utc): wind on summit during that spell: WSW to WNW 10-15kt, after 10/11NepTime (04/05utc) again quickly increasing to 25kt.
To come down from summit C4-C3-C2: 15-20kt
Weatherwise: confirmation the airmass is unstable which results in the possiblity of a few showery outbreaks, but this should be very limited.

Levels
Base camp: 5,360mr  17,858ft
Camp 1   : 6,100mr  20,000ft
Camp 2   : 6,600mr  21,500ft
Camp 3   : 7,200mr  23,600ft
Camp 4   : 7,800mr  26,000ft
Summit   : 8,848mr  29,029ft
 
General weather conditions
day 1: 16 may
: cloudy with sunny spells. Unstable: clouds between 7 and 8000mr. Prob40% snow shower. Clearing above 6200mr during the day.
day 2: 17 may: sunny and clear. Formation of Cumulus between BC and 6200mr. Prob20% snow shower.
day 3: 18 may: sunny with some high clouds. Formation of Cumulus around 6-6500mr. Prob30% snow shower.
day 4: 19 may: sunny and clear. Few Cumulus around 6200mr. Some Cumulus between BC and 6200mr. Blowing snow above 8500mr.
day 5: 20 may: sunny and clear. Formation of Cumulus between BC and 6200mr: Prob40% snow shower.

Air temperatures during ascent
BC: 0°C
C1: -7°C
C2: -10°C
C3: -12°C
C4: -18°C
S!: -29°C
 
Wind forecast
day 1: 16 may
BC: WSW 5-10kt
C1: W 10-15kt
C2: WNW 10kt
C3: WNW 10kt
C4: NW 10-15kt becoming VAR 2-5kt
S!: NW 10-15kt becoming WSW 5kt
 
day 2: 17 may
BC: W 5-10kt
C1: WNW 10kt
C2: NW 10-15kt
C3: NW 10-15kt
C4: VAR 5kt after 03utc becoming NNW 15kt
S!: W 10-15kt after 04-05utc becoming W 25-30kt
 
day 3: 18 may
BC: WSW 10kt
C1: WNW 10kt
C2: NW 10-15kt
C3: NW 15kt
C4: NW 15-20kt
S!: WNW 20-25kt
 
day 4: 19 may
BC: WSW 15kt
C1: W 20kt
C2: W 25kt
C3: W 25-30kt
C4: W 30-35kt
S!: W 35-40kt
 
day 5: 20 may
BC: SW 10-15kt
C1: WSW 15kt
C2: W 15-20kt
C3: W 20kt
C4: W 30-35kt
S!: W 40kt

Albert Bosch/Epopeya Everest Sin Limits - Forecast 15 May - day 38

Saturday, May 15th, 2010

Everest Forecast 15 may

Detailed wind expectation during summit attempt according to timing of ascent. This confirms the fact that the window of the 17th is a very tight window! It looks like the wind increase on the early morning of the 17th could be a little bit earlier. So if possible: the earlier they start for the final ‘attaque’ on the 16th, the better!
Start on the 16th 2000NepTime (14utc) at C3-C4: during climb wind is average 5-10kt
Estimated time to arrive at the summit: 06-0900NepTime (00-0300utc): wind on summit during that spell: WSW to WNW 10-15kt, after 08/10NepTime again increasing to 20-25kt.
To come down from summit C4-C3-C2: 15-20kt
Weatherwise: confirmation the airmass is unstable which results in the possiblity of a few showery outbreaks, but this should be very limited.

Levels
Base camp: 5,360mr  17,858ft
Camp 1   : 6,100mr  20,000ft
Camp 2   : 6,600mr  21,500ft
Camp 3   : 7,200mr  23,600ft
Camp 4   : 7,800mr  26,000ft
Summit   : 8,848mr  29,029ft
 
General weather conditions
day 1: 16 may
: cloudy with sunny spells. Unstable: clouds 6 and 8000mr. Prob50% snow shower. Improving during the day.
day 2: 17 may: sunny and clear. Formation of Cumulus between BC and 6200mr. Prob20% snow shower.
day 3: 18 may: sunny with some high clouds. Unstable! Formation of Cumulus around 6-6500mr. Prob40% snow shower.
day 4: 19 may: sunny and clear. Few Cumulus around 6200mr. Blowing snow above 8500mr.
day 5: 20 may: sunny and clear. Formation of Cumulus between BC and 6200mr: Prob30% snow shower.
day 6: 21 may: Very cloudy and unstable. Prob 60% snow showers
day 7: 22 may: sunny with clouds at summit level. Cumulus between BC and 6200mr.

Air temperatures over the next seven days
BC: -4°C becoming 0°C (D6)
C1: -8°C becoming -4°C (D6)
C2: -10°C becoming -8°C (D6)
C3: -12°C becoming -10°C (D6)
C4: -19°C becoming -17°C (D6)
S!: -27°C becoming -26°C (D6)
 
Wind forecast
day 1: 16 may
BC: WSW 5-10kt
C1: W 10-15kt
C2: WNW 10-15kt
C3: WNW 10-15kt
C4: NW 5-10kt
S!: NW 10-15kt
 
day 2: 17 may
BC: WNW 10kt
C1: W 10kt becoming WNW 15kt
C2: NW 10-15kt becoming N 10kt
C3: NW 10-15kt becoming N 10kt
C4: WNW 5-10kt becoming (after 03/06utc) becoming 15-20kt
S!: W 10kt after 03/06utc becoming WNW 20kt after 06/09utc becoming 25kt
 
day 3: 18 may
BC: WSW 10kt
C1: NW 5-10kt becoming W 15kt
C2: N 10-15kt becoming W 15kt
C3: NW 10-15kt becoming W 20kt
C4: N 15kt becoming W 20-25kt
S!: WNW 20kt becoming W 25-30kt
 
day 4: 19 may
BC: WSW 15kt
C1: W 20kt
C2: W 25kt
C3: W 25-30kt
C4: W 25-30kt
S!: W 35-40kt
 
day 5: 20 may
BC: WSW 10-15kt
C1: WSW 15kt
C2: W 15-20kt
C3: W 20kt
C4: W 25-35kt
S!: W 25-35kt
 
day 6: 21 may
BC: W 10kt
C1: NW 10-15kt
C2: NW 15-20kt
C3: NW 15-20kt
C4: NW 15-20kt
S!: NW 20-25kt
 
day 7: 22 may
BC: WSW 10kt
C1: W 15kt
C2: W 15kt
C3: W 15kt
C4: W 15kt
S!: W 15kt

Albert Bosch/Epopeya Everest Sin Limits: Forecast 14 May - day 37

Friday, May 14th, 2010

Everest Forecast 14 may

Detailed wind expectation during summit attempt according to timing of ascent:  this confirms the fact that the window of the 17th is a rather small window: according to scheduled timing: start the climb at 2000NepTime(16/05), arriving on the summit between 0600 and 0900Nep Time the wind will be in limits (less than 15kt) but after 0900-1100Neptime wind is expected to pick up to 20kt and more. So this means that this is a very tight window!
Start on the 16th 2000NepTime (14utc) at C3-C4: during climb wind is average 10-15kt, decreasing to 5-10kt
Estimated time to arrive at the summit: 06-0900NepTime (00-0300utc): wind on summit during that spell: W to WNW 8-12kt, after 09/11NepTime again increasing to 20-25kt.
To come down from summit C4-C3-C2: 10-15kt becoming 20-25kt.
Weatherwise: confirmation the airmass is unstable which results in the possiblity of a few showery outbreaks, but this should be very limited.

Levels
Base camp: 5,360mr  17,858ft
Camp 1   : 6,100mr  20,000ft
Camp 2   : 6,600mr  21,500ft
Camp 3   : 7,200mr  23,600ft
Camp 4   : 7,800mr  26,000ft
Summit   : 8,848mr  29,029ft
 
General weather conditions
day 1: 15 may: sunny and unstable: growing Cumulus 6 and 8000mr. Prob50% snow shower.
day 2: 16 may: sunny and unstable: around 6-7000mr. Prob30% snow shower.
day 3: 17 may: sunny with patchy high clouds. Scattered Cumulus around 6-6500mr. Prob20% snow shower.
day 4: 18 may: sunny and clear. Few Cumulus around 6-6500mr. Blowing snow above 8500mr develops.
day 5: 19 may: sunny with Cirrus patches. Scattered Cumulus BC-6200mr: Prob50% snow shower. Blowing snow above 8000mr.
day 6: 20 may: sunny with patches of high cloud. Growing Cumulus. Prob 50% snow showers
day 7: 21 may: sunny. Cumulus between BC and 6200mr

Air temperatures over the next seven days
BC: -3°C becoming -0°C (D6)
C1: -10°C becoming -6°C (D6)
C2: -12°C becoming -10°C (D6)
C3: -17°C becoming -12°C (D6)
C4: -21°C becoming -18°C (D6)
S!: -29°C becoming -27°C (D6)
 
Wind forecast
day 1: 15 may
BC: WSW 10-15kt
C1: WSW 10-15kt
C2: W 10-20kt
C3: W 10-20kt
C4: W 15-25kt
S!: W 20-30kt
 
day 2: 16 may
BC: WSW 10kt
C1: WSW 10kt becoming W 15kt
C2: W 15kt becoming NW 10-15kt
C3: W 15kt becoming NW 10-15kt
C4: WNW 10-15kt becoming NNW 5-10kt
S!: WNW 15-20kt becoming W 5-10kt
 
day 3: 17 may
BC: WSW 5-10kt becoming 10-15kt
C1: W 5-10kt becoming W 15kt
C2: NW 15kt
C3: NW 15kt
C4: N 5-10kt becoming (after 06utc) becoming 15-20kt
S!: WNW 5-10kt after 03/06utc becoming WNW 15-20kt
 
day 4: 18 may
BC: W 10-15kt
C1: WNW 15kt
C2: NW 15-20kt
C3: NW 20kt
C4: NW 20-30kt
S!: WNW 30-40kt
 
day 5: 19 may
BC: WNW 10-15kt
C1: W 20kt
C2: W 20-25kt
C3: W 25kt
C4: W 25-35kt
S!: WNW 40-45kt
 
day 6: 20 may
BC: SW 15kt
C1: WSW 15-20kt
C2: W 20-25kt
C3: W 25kt
C4: W 25-35kt
S!: W 35-45kt
 
day 7: 21 may
BC: WSW 15kt
C1: WSW 15kt
C2: W 15kt
C3: W 15-20kt
C4: W 25kt
S!: W 25kt

Albert Bosch/Epopeya Everest Sin Limits: Forecast 13 May - day 36

Thursday, May 13th, 2010

Everest Forecast 13 may
Detailed wind expectation during summit attempt according to timing of ascent.
Start on the 16th 2000NepTime (14utc) at C3-C4: during climb wind is average 8-12kt
Estimated time to arrive at the summit: 06-0900NepTime (00-0300utc): wind on summit during that spell: W to WNW 13-17kt decreasing to 8-12kt, after 05/05utc again increasing to 20-25kt.
To come down from summit C4-C3-C2: 10-15kt becoming 20-25kt.
Weatherwise: the airmass is slightly unstable which results in the possiblity of a few showery outbreaks, but this should be very limited.

Levels
Base camp: 5,360mr  17,858ft
Camp 1   : 6,100mr  20,000ft
Camp 2   : 6,600mr  21,500ft
Camp 3   : 7,200mr  23,600ft
Camp 4   : 7,800mr  26,000ft
Summit   : 8,848mr  29,029ft
 
General weather conditions
day 1: 14 may: sunny with few Cumulus up to 7000mr. Prob20% snow shower. Blowing snow above 8500mr.
day 2: 15 may: sunny with Cumulus between 6-8000mr. Prob50% snow shower.
day 3: 16 may: sunny and clear. Scattered Cumulus. Prob20% snow shower.
day 4: 17 may: sunny and clear. Few Cumulus around 6-6500mr.
day 5: 18 may: sunny and clear, Cirrus patches. Growing Cumulus: Prob30% snow shower.
day 6: 19 may: sunny with patches of high cloud. Very cloudy between BC and 6200mr Prob40% snow shower. Blowing snow above 8500mr.
day 7: 20 may: Patches of Cumulus between BC and 6200mr; Blowing snow above 8500mr.

Air temperatures over the next seven days
BC: -7°C becoming -0°C (D6)
C1: -10°C becoming -3°C (D6)
C2: -13°C becoming -6°C (D6)
C3: -18°C becoming -9°C (D6)
C4: -23°C becoming -14°C (D6)
S!: -30°C becoming -22°C (D6)
 
Wind forecast
day 1: 14 may
BC: WSW 15_20kt
C1: WSW 20kt
C2: W 20kt
C3: W 20-25kt
C4: W 25-30kt
S!: W 30-40kt
 
day 2: 15 may
BC: WSW 10-15kt
C1: WSW 15-20kt
C2: WNW 15-20kt
C3: WNW 15-20kt
C4: WNW 20-25kt
S!: WNW 20-30kt
 
day 3: 16 may
BC: WNW 10kt
C1: WSW 15kt
C2: W 15kt
C3: WNW 15kt
C4: WNW 15-20kt
S!: WNW 15-20kt
 
day 4: 17 may
BC: WSW 10kt
C1: WNW 10-15kt
C2: NW 15kt
C3: NW 5-10kt becoming 15kt
C4: NW 5-10kt becoming 15-20kt
S!: NW 15kt after 6utc (12 nepalese time) becoming WNW 20-25kt
 
day 5: 18 may
BC: WNW 10kt
C1: WNW 10-15kt
C2: WNW 15-20kt
C3: WNW 20kt
C4: W 20-30kt
S!: WNW 25-30kt
 
day 6: 19 may
BC: WSW 15kt
C1: WNW 20-25kt
C2: W 25kt
C3: W 25-30kt
C4: W 30-35kt
S!: W 35-45kt
 
day 7: 20 may
BC: SW 15kt
C1: WSW 15kt
C2: W 15kt
C3: W 20-25kt
C4: W 25-30kt
S!: WSW 40-45kt

Kite Greenland 2010: Forecast 12 May - day 8

Wednesday, May 12th, 2010

Finally ‘our Guys on the Ice’ have some wind. Hopefully they can cover some distance during this windy spell because on the 14th wind dies off again.

Day1-13May N66/W39.9
Wind: NW 28-33kt, after 18/21utc NW 20-25kt, further decreasing
Wx: sunny, blowing snow, after 24utc snow shower.
Temps: -12C later -8C

Day2-14May
Wind: NNW 10-15kt, decreasing: after 18utc calm.
Wx: sunny, scattered cloud.
Temps:-10C later -8C

Day3-15May
Wind: N less than 5kt!
Wx: very cloudy, later sunny.
Temp:min-18C/max:-10C

Advice: try to cover as much distance as u can right now. After the wind dies off on the 14th, weak for at least 24hr. Take care. M

Albert Bosch/Epopeya Everest Sin limits: Forecast 12 may - day 35

Wednesday, May 12th, 2010

asiai8

Whispy high clouds point at high wind speeds at the jet stream level. Otherwise quite clear conditions over the Himalaya’s (c)Eumetsat

Everest Forecast 12 may
The 13th and the 14th the wind on the highest levels of the mountain is still strong (30-40kt=60-80km/hr). From the 15th till the 18th wind decreases to 10-20kt, after the 18th again becoming more than 35-40kt.
From the 15th the air is getting unstable enough to trigger a few snow shower. At this stage it looks like those showers will be rather limited and not too heavy.
So the 16 and the 17th look like a rather good weather window to go for.

Levels
Base camp: 5,360mr  17,858ft
Camp 1   : 6,100mr  20,000ft
Camp 2   : 6,600mr  21,500ft
Camp 3   : 7,200mr  23,600ft
Camp 4   : 7,800mr  26,000ft
Summit   : 8,848mr  29,029ft
 
General weather conditions
day 1: 13 may: sunny and clear. Few Cumulus. Blowing snow above 8000mr
day 2: 14 may: sunny and clear. Scattered Cumulus. Blowing snow above 8000mr
day 3: 15 may: sunny with scattered growing Cumulus around 6500-7000mr. Prob 20-30% for snow shower.
day 4: 16 may: sunny and clear. Growing Cumulus between 6-7000mr. Prob 30-40% snow showers.
day 5: 17 may: sunny with growing Cumulus around 6500mr. Prob 30% snow showers.
day 6: 18 may: sunny and clear. Patches of Cumulus between BC and 6200mr
day 7: 19 may: sunny and clear. Patches of Cumulus between BC and 6200mr; Blowing snow above 8500mr.

Air temperatures over the next seven days
BC: -1°C becoming -0°C (D6)
C1: -10°C becoming -4°C (D6)
C2: -12°C becoming -6°C (D6)
C3: -17°C becoming -10°C (D6)
C4: -20°C becoming -16°C (D6)
S!: -29°C becoming -24°C (D6)
 
Wind forecast
day 1: 13 may
BC: WSW 10kt
C1: WSW 15-20kt
C2: W 20kt
C3: W 20kt
C4: W 25-30kt
S!: W 30-40kt
 
day 2: 14 may
BC: WSW 15kt
C1: WSW 20-25kt
C2: WSW 20-25kt
C3: W 25-30kt
C4: W 30-35kt
S!: 30-40kt
 
day 3: 15 may
BC: WSW 10-15kt
C1: WSW 15-20kt
C2: W 15-20kt
C3: W 15-20kt
C4: WNW 15-20kt
S!: WNW 25-30kt
 
day 4: 16 may
BC: WSW 10-15kt
C1: WSW 10-15kt
C2: WNW 10-15kt
C3: WNW 10-15kt
C4: WNW 5-10kt
S!: WNW 10-15kt
 
day 5: 17 may
BC: WNW 10kt
C1: NW 10-15kt
C2: NW 15kt
C3: NW 15kt
C4: NW 10-15kt
S!: WNW 15-20kt
 
day 6: 18 may
BC: WNW 10kt
C1: WNW 15kt
C2: W 10-15kt
C3: NW 10-15kt
C4: NW 15-20kt
S!: WNW 25-30kt
 
day 7: 19 may
BC: SW 15kt
C1: WSW 15kt
C2: W 20-25kt

Albert Bosch/Epopeya Everest Sin Limits: Forecast 11 May - day 33

Tuesday, May 11th, 2010

Everest Forecast 11 may
Until tomorrow high winds above 8000mr, from the 13th gradually decreasing. The wind stays between 25-35kt on the 13th and 14th. During the next days the wind at the higher levels will averagely be around 25kt.
So an the 13th the blowing snow eases, but than the airmass is unstable enough to trigger the daily snow shower(s). At this point those showers dont look too bad, the worst day being the 15th.

Levels
Base camp: 5,360mr  17,858ft
Camp 1   : 6,100mr  20,000ft
Camp 2   : 6,600mr  21,500ft
Camp 3   : 7,200mr  23,600ft
Camp 4   : 7,800mr  26,000ft
Summit   : 8,848mr  29,029ft

General weather conditions
day 1: 12 may
: sunny scattered Cumulus around 6500-7000mr. Blowing snow above 8000mr
day 2: 13 may: sunny and clear, later Cumulus growing patches between 6 and 7000mr. Clear above. Blowing snow easing.
day 3: 14 may: sunny with few cloud around 6500-7000mr. Clear above.
day 4: 15 may: sunny growing Cumulus up to 7500-8000mr. Prob 50-60% snow shower.
day 5: 16 may: sunny and clear. Formation of Cumulus between 6500-7000mr. Prob 40% snow shower.
day 6: 17 may: sunny with patches of cloud around 6200mr. Prob 20-30% snow shower
day 7: 18 may: suny and clear with some high clouds. Later patchy cloud between BC and 6500mr and dens high clouds above 9000m. Prob 30% snow shower.

Air temperatures over the next seven days
BC: -1°C becoming 0°C (D6)
C1: -10°C becoming -6°C (D6)
C2: -11°C becoming -8°C (D6)
C3: -14°C becoming -10°C (D6)
C4: -19°C becoming -16°C (D6)
S!: -27°C becoming -25°C (D6)

Wind forecast
day 1: 12 may
BC: WSW 15kt
C1: WSW 15-20kt
C2: W 20kt
C3: W 20-25kt
C4: W 30-35kt
S!: W 45-50kt
 
day 2: 13 may
BC: WSW 10-15kt
C1: W 20kt
C2: W 20kt
C3: W 20kt
C4: WNW 20-25kt
S!: W 30-35kt becoming 25-30kt

day 3: 14 may
BC: WSW 10-15kt
C1: WSW 15-20kt
C2: W 20-25kt
C3: W 20-25kt
C4: W 25-30kt
S!: W 30-35kt becoming 20-25kt
 
day 4: 15 may
BC: WSW 10-15kt
C1: WSW 15kt
C2: W 15kt
C3: W 15-20kt
C4: WNW 15-20kt
S!: W 25kt
 
day 5: 16 may
BC: WSW 10kt
C1: WSW 15kt
C2: WNW 15kt
C3: WNW 15kt
C4: WNW 15kt
S!: W 15-20kt

day 6: 17 may
BC: W 10kt
C1: WNW 15kt
C2: WNW 10-15kt
C3: WNW 15kt
C4: NW 15kt becoming WNW 25kt
S!: NW 20-25kt becoming 25-30kt

day 7: 18 may
BC: WSW 5-10kt
C1: W 10-15kt
C2: NW 10kt
C3: NW 10kt
C4: WNW 15-20kt
S!: WNW 25kt

Albert Bosch/Epopeya Everest Sin Limits: Forecast 10 May - day 32

Monday, May 10th, 2010

asiair7

Latest sat shot of South East Asia: stabilizing conditions over Nepal. Jet stream extends as far as the Himalayas, resulting in storm at the higher levels of the mountain (c) Satellite Image from Eumetsat 

Everest Forecast 10 may
On the 11th and the 12th there will be a severe storm above 8000mr. Average wind speeds of 50-60kt(=100-120km/hr) and gusting up to 70-75kt (=150km/hr). This storm wind start to decrease late on the 12th so on the 13th and the 14th wind on summit is averagely between 20-30kt, still quite windy. From the 15th wind further decreases (10-20kt) but than the airmass is getting more unstable and the risk for snow or snow showers increases. The worst day for snow/showers looks like being the 16th. But as you know, this is a trend which needs confirmation.

Levels
Base camp: 5,360mr  17,858ft
Camp 1   : 6,100mr  20,000ft
Camp 2   : 6,600mr  21,500ft
Camp 3   : 7,200mr  23,600ft
Camp 4   : 7,800mr  26,000ft
Summit   : 8,848mr  29,029ft
 
General weather conditions
day 1: 11 may
: sunny and clear. Scattered Cumulus. Severe blowing snow above 8000mr
day 2: 12 may: sunny and clear. Scattered Cumulus. Severe blowing snow above 8000mr, decreasing later during the day (after 18/21utc)
day 3: 13 may:
sunny with scattered Cumulus around 6-7000mr. The risk for a shower is very little.
day 4: 14 may: sunny and clear. Patches of Cumulus around 6500mr.
day 5: 15 may: sunny with growing Cumulus. Prob 30-40% snow showers.
day 6: 16 may: unstable conditions, growing Cumulus. Prob 70% snow showers.
day 7: 17 may: unstable conditions, growing clouds.  Prob 50-60% snow showers.
 
Air temperatures over the next seven days
BC: -5°C becoming -2°C (D6)
C1: -8°C becoming -9°C (D6)
C2: -10°C becoming -11°C (D6)
C3: -12°C becoming -13°C (D6)
C4: -17°C becoming -19°C (D6)
S!: -26°C becoming -29°C (D6)
 
Wind forecast
day 1: 11 may
BC: SW 10-15kt becoming W 10kt
C1: WSW 20kt
C2: WSW 20kt
C3: W 20-25kt
C4: WNW 30kt
S!: W 50-60kt
 
day 2: 12 may
BC: WSW 10-15kt
C1: WSW 15-20kt
C2: WSW 20-25kt
C3: W 25kt
C4: W 30kt becoming 25kt
S!: W 50-60kt becoming 30kt
 
day 3: 13 may
BC: WSW 10kt
C1: WSW 15kt
C2: W 15-20kt
C3: W 15-20kt
C4: WNW 15-20kt becoming WNW 25kt
S!: W 25-30kt becoming W 20-25kt
 
day 4: 14 may
BC: WSW 10-15kt
C1: WSW 20kt
C2: W 20kt
C3: W 20-25kt
C4: W 20kt
S!: W 30kt becoming W 20-25kt
 
day 5: 15 may
BC: WSW 10kt
C1: WSW 15kt
C2: W 20kt
C3: W 20-25kt
C4: W 25-30kt becoming WNW 15kt
S!: WNW 15-20kt
 
day 6: 16 may
BC: W 10kt
C1: W 10-15kt
C2: W 10-15kt
C3: WNW 10-15kt
C4: NW 10-15kt
S!: WNW 10-15kt
 
day 7: 17 may
BC: VAR becoming W 15kt
C1: VAR becoming WNW 15kt
C2: VAR becoming NW 15kt
C3: VAR becoming NW 15kt
C4: VAR becoming NW 15kt
S!: VAR becoming N 15kt

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