Archive for the ‘Ongoing expeditions’ Category

North East West passage: Satellite image of Arctic

Monday, September 6th, 2010

 map372

This satellite image is taken by the AVHRR (Advance Very High Resolution Radiometer) that sits on the polar orbiting satellite NOAA19. This satellite circles around the world in about 100 minutes at an altitude of approximately 800km. This is an image in the visual channel, this means that the radiometer captures the short wave radiation that is reflected by the Earth’s surface, clouds, etc. It is from 1800utc, 6 September 2010.

This image gives you an overview of the Western Arctic, from the Chukchi Sea, via the Beaufort Sea towards Ellesmere Island. The white dot at the top is the North Pole. Point Barrow is indicated with the red arrow. If you have red the overview of the climate conditions at Point Barrow (previous post) than you know that it is very exceptional to have clear skies in summer with an open sea. However this image shows the PB arrow clear of clouds, with fog or Stratus cloud a little bit further at Sea.

Very typical for high pressure conditions is the low cloud cover. The strong high over the Beaufort Sea is generating a lot of Stratus, or low cloud. The vertical movement in a high pressure system is downward: when air moves downward it is getting warmer and drier. Until it hits the inversion layer. In this layer, that extends from the surface upto a variable height of 500-800meter, all moisture is captured which results in fog/low clouds.

Christian Eide and Team: Forecast Along the track- 6 Sept

Monday, September 6th, 2010

sat4

This image is taken by the noaa19 polar orbiting satellite at 1200utc. It is in the visible channel, that means that this is what you would see if you were up there, sitting on the satellite! Image from the Canadian weather Office.

Forecast from Dye III along the track - 06 September 2010 - day 5

General:
The latest satellite image shows a quite significant cloudsheet to the East of your current position. This is expected to move further to the East so i will not affect your weather condition. In general the weather conditions for the next few day look pretty good, except for the 8th of September when the wind is expected to increase and this may result in drifting or blowing snow. It will blow from the ESE to SE so this will be mainly a tailwind.

Day 1: 06 September 2010
Weather: after a very cloudy start with possily still some residual slight snow, weather conditions are expected to improve: enlarging sunny spells with good visibility.
Wind: SSW 3-5m/s, turning to the SSE  and slightly decreasing: 2-4ms
Temperatures: -8/-4°C

Day 2: 07 September 2010
Weather: scattered cloudiness with sunny spells, becoming clear-good visibility. No significant change.
Wind: SE 2-4m/s, after 18/21utc becming E 5-8ms
Temperatures: -14/-8°C

Day 3: 08 September 2010
Weather: sunny and clear with possibly after 21/24utc formation of low clouds or fog patches.
Wind: ESE 7-10ms, later veering to SSE 5-8ms.
Temperatures: -15/-3°C

Day 4: 09 September 2010
Weather: sunny spells with scattered clouds. After 15/18utc possibly formation of Low Stratus or fog patches.
Wind: S 4-6ms, after 15/18utc becoming calm.
Temperatures: -6°C after 15/18utc becoming -14/-16°C

North East West passage: Forecast - day 55

Monday, September 6th, 2010

map36

This map shows the synoptic sutuation valid for 12utc the 7th of September. It is clear that along the Southern flank of the Beaufort high pressure system a strong Easterly wind blows along the Northern Alaska coast. Click on the map to see the full display.

Northern Passage at Point Barrow!

Climate of the Point Barrow region

Owing to its location 320 miles (515 km) north of the Arctic Circle, Barrow’s climate is cold and dry and is classified as a polar climate. Winter weather can be extremely dangerous because of the combination of cold and wind, while summers are cool even at their warmest. Weather observations are available for Barrow dating back into the late 1800s.[6] Currently there is a National Weather Service (NWS) Office and a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Monitoring Lab in Barrow.
Despite the extreme northern location, temperatures at Barrow are moderated by the surrounding topography. With the Arctic Ocean on three sides, and flat tundra stretching some 200 miles (300 km) to the south there are no wind barriers and there are no protected valleys where dense cold air can settle or form temperature inversions in the lower atmosphere in the way that commonly happens in the Interior between the Brooks Range and the Alaska Range.
Barrow experiences the lowest average temperatures in Alaska. While recording the lowest temperatures statewide during cold waves is rare, extremely low wind chill and “white out” conditions from blowing snow are very common.
Temperatures remain below freezing from early October through late May. The high daily temperature is above freezing on an average of only 109 days per year. There are freezing temperatures on an average of 324 days per year. Freezing temperatures, and snowfall, can occur during any month of the year.
Barrow is a desert, with an average of less than 5 in (127 mm) “equivalent rainfall” per year, which includes less than 30 in (76 cm) of snow. (Since one inch of rain is approximately equal to twelve inches (305 mm) of snow).
The first snow (defined as snow that will not melt until next spring) generally falls during the first week of October, when temperatures cease to rise above freezing during the day. October is usually the month with the heaviest snowfall, with at least a trace of snow virtually every day and an average total accumulation of about 7 in (18 cm).Snow can also fall in the summer.
On November 18 or 19 the sun goes down, and remains below the horizon for about 65 days until it re-appears, normally on January 22 or January 23. During the first half of the polar night there is a decreasing amount of twilight each day, and on the winter solstice, December 21 or December 22, civil twilight in Barrow lasts for a mere 3 hours.
In addition to the low temperatures and months without sun, Barrow is also one of the cloudiest places on earth. Owing to the prevailing easterly winds off the Arctic Ocean, Barrow is completely overcast slightly more than 50% of the year and at least 70% overcast 62% of the time. Cloud types are mainly low stratus and fog, cumuli forms are rare. Peak cloudiness occurs in August and September when the ocean is open. Dense fog occurs an average of 65 days per year, mostly in the summer months. Ice fog is very common during the winter months, especially when the temperature drops below −30 °F (−34 °C).
Serious cold weather usually begins in January, and February is generally the coldest month, averaging −16 °F (−27 °C). A few days in December, January, February, and March feature daily record high temperatures in the low double digits, with the mid-30s that you see for the monthly record highs being exceptions. By March 1 the sun is up for 9 hours, the average temperature is 2 or 3 degrees warmer, and the winds are usually higher. April brings less extreme temperatures, with an average of about 0 °F (−18 °C), but on April 1 there are over 14 hours of sunlight. In May the temperatures are much warmer, averaging 20 °F (−7 °C). Beginning on May 11–12, the phenomenon known as the midnight sun occurs and the sun does not set for 82–83 days, until July 31-August 1. In June the average temperature rises above freezing, to 35 °F (2 °C), and average daily temperatures remain above freezing until mid-September.
July is the warmest month of the year with an average high of 46 °F (8 °C) and an average low temperature of 34 °F (1 °C). Beginning in late July the Arctic Ocean is relatively ice-free, and remains so until late October.
Variation of wind speed during the year is small, with the fall months being windiest. Extreme winds from 40–60 mph (60–100 km/h) have been recorded for all months.[7] The average winds are 12 mph (20 km/h), from the east. (source Wikipedia)

klimpb

North East West passage: Forecast 5 Sept - day 4

Sunday, September 5th, 2010

map351

This map shows the synoptic situation valid for the 7th of September. The high pressure over the Beaufort Sea and the low over the Kotzebeu Sound, in between a strong Easterly wind along the North Alaska coast towards point Barrow. Click on the map to see the full display.

Weather Forecast North East West passage -05 Spt- day 54
 
General situation
A pretty deep depression develops over the Bering Sea whilst a large high pressure system cover the best parts of the Beaufort Sea. In between those two pressure systems a strong Easterly windfield is maintained. This situation seems to be rather persistent, next week as well and triggers some strong Easterly wind over the Southern parts of the Beaufort Sea. Especially the seventh of September the stretch beyond Point Barrow seems to be very windy.
On the 8th a low pressure trough will gradually extend towards the Southern parts of the Beaufort Sea. This results in easing and turning winds on the 8th.
However details in local wind conditions can still change and might offer different possibilities to progress Eastwards.
(All forecasted winds are average values).
 
Day 1: 05 Sept
Weather: scattered to broken clouds with sunny spells.
Wind: 080-100°10-15kt after 12utc becoming 060-080°8-12kt. No significant change.
 
Day 2: 06 Sept
Weather: sunny spells with scattered cloud.
Wind: 100-120°8-13kt after 24utc 100-120°12-16kt (East of Point Barrow).
 
Day 3: 07 Sept
Weather: broken cloud, sunny spells. No precipitation.
Wind: 100-120°15-20kt, after 12utc 080-100°18-23kt. (Decreasing after 21/24utc, and gradually turning to SSE)
 
Outlook beyond Point Barrow

8 Sept: 150-170°5-10kt becominf 210-230°4-8kt, than dropping away before turning to 080-100°12-16kt.
9 Sept: 090-110°8-13kt, no siginificant change
10 Sept: 090-110°8-13kt, gradually becoming 5-10kt

These values are close to the coast, further out in the Sea you can easily add 10kt.

Christian Eide and team: DYEIII - to Nuuk: forecast 4 Sep

Saturday, September 4th, 2010

sat3

Latest satellite image from noaa19. This is an Infra Red iamge showing the difference in temperatures of the different fields. Dark is warm and white is cold. We us these pictures to see the difference between high and low clouds. Low clouds are warm and appear dark, whilst high clouds are very cold and are showing up white. As you can see the team is under the high clouds of the frontal depression. Click on the image to see the full display.

Forecast Dye III to Nuuk - 04 September 2010 - day 4
Position: N65.138 W-43.82
Altitude: 2490meter

General:
On the latsest satellite image the frontal depression has shifted a little more to the East but it will still determine the weather over your location today and tomorrow.

Day 1: 04 September 2010
Estimated position: 65.13/-43.8
Weather: still very cloudy to overcast with slight to temporarily moderate snowfall. No more blowing snow, so visibility should be slightly better than previous days.
Wind: ENE 4-6m/s, turning to the North and slightly decreasing
Temperatures: -5/-6°C

Day 2: 05 September 2010
Estimated position: 65.0/-44.4
Weather: still very cloudy but gradually (slowly) improving conditions. Initially still some slight snow but that should stop and some sunny spells develop. Moderate to good visibility and also the contrast and horizon improves.
Wind: SE 4-6m/s, slightly increasing
Temperatures: -12/-4°C

Day 3: 06 September 2010
Estimated position: 64.9/-44.9
Weather: sunny spells and scattered to broken high clouds. Possibly a few fog patches around.
Wind: S 2-4ms, no significant change.
Temperatures: -10/-6°C

North East West passage: forecast 4 Sept - day 53

Saturday, September 4th, 2010

map34

On the synoptic map of this morning 0600utc you can see the powerful high pressure cell (or anticyclone) with a ridge extending towards the Chukchi Sea. At the same time over the Bering Sea there is a complex low pressure area with a convergence line. In between the former and the latter there is a strong Easterly windfield along the North coast of Alaska. Click on the map to see the full display.

Summarized weather forecast for the North East West passage -04 Spt- day 53
 
General situation
The main player on the field is and remains the high pressure cell situated over the Beaufort Sea. The center of this pressure system is this morning at 0600utc situated at 76.7/-136.5. A ridge (or an extension of a high pressure cell) stretches out Westwards to the Chukchi Sea. Along the Southern flank of this ridge a pretty strong Easterly is maintained during this period. Local and small scale conditions may alter that wind a little: the first few hours from now the wind veers to the SSE due to a developing convergence line over the C-sea. This will only last for 6, maximum 9 hours before the wind drops and turns back to the East or Northeast after 21/24utc (today).

(All forecasted winds are average values).
 
Day 1: 04 Sept
Weather: very cloudy with some short sunny spells. Later increasing cloudiness and more risk for a showery outbreak.
Wind: between 6 and 12utc wind veers to 150-170°6-12kt, after 18utc becoming calm and after 21/24utv turning to 040-060°5-10kt.
 
Day 2: 05 Sept
Weather: sunny spells with scattered cloud. Mainly dry.
Wind: after 6utc becoming 070-090°8-13kt (close along the coast) further in sea you can add 5-10kt.
 
Day 3: 06 Sept

Weather: sunny and dry.
Wind: 090-110°8-13kt, no significant change. After 24utc gradually increasing.
 
Day 4: 07 Sept
Weather: increasing cloudiness.
Wind: mainly 100-120°15-20kt

Christian Eide and team: DYEIII - forecast 3 Sep - day 3

Friday, September 3rd, 2010

sat2

This satellite image is taken from the noaa19 - AVHRR radiometer early this morning. It shows the Western and Southern parts of Greenland still in the dark while daylight is present over the North and East. Nevertheless this picture shows well the extension of the frontal system that covers the Eastern parts of Greenland. This system originates from the ex-tropical cyclone Danielle. Click on the image to see the full display.

Forecast Dye III - 03 September 2010 - day 3
Position: N65.138 W-43.82
Altitude: 2490meter

Quick update
General:
The frontal system has reactivated by the warm air introduced by the Ex tropical cyclone Danielle (you would not expect this in Greenland but in the world of weather systems everything is possible); Such a system is very hard to handle by the meteorological models, so the forecast can change very quickly. What happened with the last run.
The latest satellite image of Greenland reveals the presence of that big weather system over the main parts of Greenland, and this is not likely to clear within the first 48 hours. So the expected improvement for tomorrow is slightly delayed.

Day 1: 03 September 2010
Weather: still solidly overcast with periods of moderate snowfall. Poor visibility. No contrast, no horizon. No significant change today.
Wind: NE to E 4-7m/s after 12/15utc becoming E 8-10m/s (average)
Temperatures: -5/2°C

Day 2: 04 September 2010
Weather: very cloudy to overcast with snow fall, poor conditions. Possibly a temporarily improvement after 18utc.
Wind: E to ENE 5-8m/s after 18utc SE 3-5ms.
Temperatures: -6/4°C

Day 3: 05 September 2010
Weather: very cloudy to solidly overcast with moderate snowfall. Poor conditions.Slow improvement starts after 18utc.
Wind: ESE to SE 5-8m/s becoming after 18/21utc SE 3-5ms
Temperatures: -5/-2°C

Day 4: 04 September 2010
Weather: enlarging sunny spells, improving conditions.
Wind: SW 4-6ms, becoming WNW 1-3ms.
Temperatures: -14/-80°C

Day 5: 05 September 2010
Weather: sunny spells/scattered clouds.
Wind: calm and weak
Temperatures: -20/-12°C

North East West passage: forecast 3 Sept - day 52

Friday, September 3rd, 2010

map33

This is the synoptic situation valid for tonight 18utc (3Sept). The main feature on this map is the strong, powerful High pressure system over the Beaufort Sea. This system generates a strong Easterly wind along its Soutwestern flank. Click on the image to see the full display.

Weather Forecast North East West passage -03 Spt- day 52
 
General situation
The main player on the synoptic maps becomes and remains the powerful and persistent high pressure system over the Beaufort Sea. Between this system and the migratory depressions over the Southern parts of the Chukchi and Bering Sea, a strong  Easterly is maintained over the largest parts of the C-sea. Fortunately one of those moving depressions gave us some veering winds last night and also a part of today. However, as said yesterday, the wind is going to back again to the East after 18utc.
Than you will have probably 6 to 9 hours S to SE’ly wind, so continue Eastwards. Between 9 and 12utc (4Sept) the wind goes back to the East, from this point you can add the Northerly component in your track (at this point you should be fairly close to the coast).

(All forecasted winds are average values).
 
Day 1: 03 Sept
Weather: very cloudy but clouds break and some sunny spells develop.
Wind: 130-150°12-17kt, after 15/18utc becoming 090-110°10-15kt. After 00/03utc wind veers again to 160-180°
 
Day 2: 04 Sept
Weather: sunny spells with scattered to broken cloud cover. Mainly dry.
Wind: 160-180°5-10kt between 9 and 12utc backing to 100-120° (this is the point to start going Northwards) and gradually increasing to 12-16kt
 
Day 3: 05 Sept
ExpWeather: variable cloudiness, sunny spells.
Wind: 090-110°13-17kt, after 09/12utc becoming 080-100°8-12kt.
 
Day 4: 06 Sept
Weather: variable cloudiness, sunny spells, mainly dry.
Wind: mainly 120-140°6-12kt

Christian Eide and team: DYEIII - forecast 2 Sep - day 2

Thursday, September 2nd, 2010

hrpt_dfo_nir_100kopie

This is the latest Satellite image of Greenland, taken y the AVHRR radiometer on the NOAA19 satellite. It shows the greatest part of Greenland covered by the clouds of an active frontal system that has dominated the weather of the ‘Greenland Skitur-guys’. If the forecast is right than the wind should die down tonight. Click on the image to see the full display.

Read the diary of Christian Eide and his Skitur team here

Forecast Dye III - 02 September 2010 - day 2
Position: N65.138 W-43.82
Altitude: 2490meter

General:
The first two days of this forecast are still pretty poor. The strong wind of today should die down after 18utc, but also tomorrow the poor weather conditions will be prsent, at least we got rid of the blowing snow. The real improvement is expted to start sometimes after 15/18utc on the 4th of September. The 5th and 6th look reasonably well.

Day 1: 02 September 2010
Weather: very cloudy to overcast with periods of moderate snowfall. Blowing snow. Poor visibility. Blowing snow. No contrast, no horizon.
Wind: E 10-15m/s (average), gradually but continuously decreasing after 18utc.
Temperatures: -4/0°C

Day 2: 03 September 2010
Weather: still Very cloudy to overcast with periods of snow. Maybe some shortlived sunny spells. Only temporarily because general conditions remain poor.
Wind: in general a weak wind (less than 3ms) from variable directions.
Temperatures: -10/-4°C

Day 3: 04 September 2010
Weather: still very cloudy to overcast with slight snow to start, but improvement starts after 15/18utc: enlarging sunny spells.
Wind: ESE 4-6m/s, no significant change
Temperatures: -6/-14°C

Day 4: 05 September 2010
Weather: maybe some groundfog but in general sunny with some high clouds.
Wind: NW 5-7ms, after 21utc weak.
Temperatures: -14/-6°C
 
Day 5: 06 September 2010
Weather: fog patches, soon lifting: sunny and clear. Good visibility, good contrast and horizon.
Wind: S 4-6m/s, turning a little to the South
Temperatures: -20/-10°C

 

 

North East West passage: Forecast 02 Sept - day 51

Thursday, September 2nd, 2010

map31map32

 The synoptic situation with the barometric pressure field and wind vanes, shows the strong windfield that is generated between the powerful high over the Beaufort Sea and the Low over the Southern parts of the Chukchi Sea. The satellite image (of the NOAA sc, polar orbiting NOAA18 AVHRR radiometer) shows the huge frontal system associated to that depression. Click on the images to see the full display.

Weather Forecast North East West passage -01 Spt- day 50
 
General situation
This strong Easterly windfield is generated by the approaching low pressure system and the Westerly moving, very strong, high pressure system over the Beaufort Sea. This windfield dominates the whole of the Chukchi Sea, especially North of 70.5°N the wind is very strong from the East, so going further North is certainly no option.
We have to put our faith in the depression i mentioned yesterday. This feature is going to cross your position today (if position and timing is right than this should be around 18-21utc). As a consequence the wind will shift to the SE, later even to the South for a while. If we want to take advantage of this Southerly wind than we need to be at the waypoint 69.5/-173.5 by 18utc. Use the current Easterly wind to tac a little to the South (don’t go South of 69.5).
If this works out than the greatest part of tomorrow we can take advantage of the S to SE’ly wind to go East. I recommend not to go North of 70.2
Tomorrow by the end of the day wind turns East again. Not a lot of options than. South of 70.2 the wind is much calmer than North of 70.5. So the best option is head East, till the vicinity of the coast and than sail along the coast.

(All forecasted winds are average values).
 
Day 1: 02 Sept
Weather: very cloudy to overcast with outbreaks of sleet or rain.
Wind: 070-090°15-20kt, use this wind to go in a SE’ly direction towards waypoint 69.5/-175, if you’re there between 18/21utc wind will turn to 130-150°, use this wind direction to tac NE again but stay below 70°N. At the waypoint 70/-173 (at0600utc-3Sept) wind will be 160-180°8-12kt. Use this wind to go straight East (E to ENE)
 
Day 2: 03 Sept
Weather: very cloudy, enlarging sunny spells. Mainly dry.
Wind: 160-180°8-13kt, after 15utc gradually becoming 120-140°10-15kt, after 21utc becoming 100-120°8-12kt (waypoint 70.3/-168)
At this point there are not a lot of options. Further North is certainly no option: between 70.5-73 straight East 25kt. I would suggest to sail straight East or slightly ESE’wards.
 
Day 3: 04 Sept
Weather: variable cloudiness, sunny spells.
Wind: 100-120°6-12kt, after 12utc becoming 080-100°5-10kt.
 
Day 4: 05 Sept
Weather: sunny spells but gradually more clouds. no weather systems coming in.
Wind: 100-120°10-15kt, after 18/21utc 130-150°4-8kt
This means sailing along the coast

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