Eric Larsen on Everest: Forecast 20 September-day 2
Monday, September 20th, 2010Everest Forecast 20 September 2010 - day 2
The forecast for this period shows a little more possibilities than the previous one. The first part of this period the weather still looks very monsoonlike, with an improving trend towards the second part of this period. However the output indicates still snowfall every day. If you want me to determine the period of the day with most snowfal risk i would say this is from sometimes between 3 and 6utc until 18 and 21utc. However the first two/three days of this period the model indicates almost continuous precipitation, heavy at times, especially between 21/1800utc till 22/6-900utc-and also on the 23th between 00 and 9/12utc.
the wind at higher levels seems to increase steadily. See below.
Levels
Base camp: 5,360mr 17,858ft
Camp 1 : 6,100mr 20,000ft
Camp 2 : 6,600mr 21,500ft
Camp 3 : 7,200mr 23,600ft
Camp 4 : 7,800mr 26,000ft
Summit : 8,848mr 29,029ft
General weather conditions
day 1: 21 sept: very cloudy between 8 and 9000mr, gradually becoming solidly overcast. Periods with moderate to heavy snowfall.
day 2: 22 sept: solidly overcast, multilayered. Moderate to heavy precipitation. Poor conditions.
day 3: 23 sept: similar as the 22th but after 9/12utc gradually improving.
day 4: 24 sept: patchy cloud below 7-7500mr, clear above, gradually further clearing. Risk for a showery outbreak.
day 5: 25 sept: fog patches possible but soon sunny with patchy cloud below 7000mr.
day 6: 26 sept: sunny with patchy clouds below 7000mr.
day 7: 27 sept: sunny with scattered clouds
Air temperatures over the next seven days
BC: -1°C becoming -3°C
C1: -4°C becoming -6°C
C2: -6°C becoming -8°C
C3: -9°C becoming -10°C
C4: -12°C becoming -14°C
S!: -20°C
Wind forecast
day 1: 21 sept
BC: S to SSW less than 6kt
C1: S to SSE less than 6kt
C2: calm, becoming SW 5-10kt
C3: Calm, becoming SW 5-10kt
C4: N 10kt to SW 10kt
S!: NE 10-15kt to SW 10kt
day 2: 22 sept
BC: SSE 3-8kt
C1: SSE to S, less than 8kt
C2: S, less than 8kt
C3: SSW, less than 8kt
C4: SW 5-10kt
S!: WSW 5-10kt
day 3: 23 sept
BC: S to SSE less than 8kt
C1: SSW less than 8kt
C2: SSW less than 8kt
C3: SSW less than 8kt
C4: S-SW less than 10kt
S!: WSW 5-10kt
day 4: 24 sept
BC: S 5-10kt
C1: S 3-8kt
C2: SSW 3-8kt
C3: SW 10kt
C4: SW to WSW 10kt
S!: WW 10-15kt
day 5: 25 sept
BC: SSW-SW 5-10kt
C1: SSW 5-10kt
C2: SW 5-10kt
C3: SW 10kt
C4: SW 10-15kt
S!: SW 15-20kt
day 6: 26 sept
BC: SW to WSW 5kt
C1: WSW 5-10kt
C2: SW 8-12kt
C3: SW 8-12kt
C4: SW 15kt
S!: WSW 20-25kt
day 7: 27 sept
BC: WSW 5kt
C1: WSW 10kt
C2: WSW 10-15kt
C3: WSW 15kt
C4: WSW 20kt
S!: WSW 25-30kt
