North East/West passage: Forecast 9 Sept - day 58
Posted in North Passage 2010 | By Marc |
This is the synoptic map valid for 12utc Saturday 11 September. A well defined high pressure cell will determine the weather conditions during this forecast period. Around a high pressure cell the wind turns clockwise in the Northern hemisphere. This means when you are ahead of such a system the wind comes from the NW to NE’ly sector. When the center comes across to the North of your position than the wind turns to the East and at the back of this sytem wind turns back to the South. Click on the images to get the full display.
This is a very nice satellite image of Alaska and the Beaufort Sea. It is taken in the visible channel so it shows the cloud distrubution as you would see it from space. This picture is taken by the AVHRR (advanced very high resolution radiometer) that sits on the NOAA 18 satellite.
Weather Forecast North East West passage -09 Spt- day 58
General situation
The next few days the synoptic situation will be dominated by a travelling high pressure cell. The center of this feature moves from West to East along the 74 parallel and determines the wind conditions during this period.
On Friday at 12utc the center of this high pressure is till at 74.5/-162 but moves than quickly to the East to be positioned 24 hours later at 74/-137! Translated into wind conditions this means that for the next 24 to 36 hours you will be on the Eastern flank of this high pressure cell which means that the wind will veer to the NW (today) and how closer the center gets the more the wind veers to the North. As soon as you see that the barometric pressure is decreasing again, than the wind will veer from the East to the SE and later to the SW when you are back on the western flank of that high pressure cell.
(All forecasted winds are average values).
Day 1: 09 Sept
Weather: sunny spells-becoming very cloudy. No precipitation. Possibly foggy after 15/18utc.
Wind: after 9utc becoming 290-310/6-10kt and after 12utc becoming 310-330°8-13kt
Day 2: 10 Sept
Weather: very cloudy with weak sunny spells.
Wind: 310-3306-10kt, after 15/18utc as the center of the high approaches (if you have a barometer you can see that the pressure will rise) the wind will veer to the N and later to the NE and will decrease to become, after 21/24utc 040-060°3-8kt.
Day 3: 11 Sept
Weather: very cloudy with weak sunny spells, no precipitation.
Wind: the wind will further veer to the East: 090-110°5-10kt, and as the pressure falls again the wind should gradually start to veer to ESE to SE, becoming after 15/18utc 120-140°5-10kt.
Day 4: 12 Sept
Weather: sunny spells and dry
Wind: 150-170°5-10kt, after 21utc becoming 180-200°4-8kt.