The synoptic situation with the barometric pressure field and wind vanes, shows the strong windfield that is generated between the powerful high over the Beaufort Sea and the Low over the Southern parts of the Chukchi Sea. The satellite image (of the NOAA sc, polar orbiting NOAA18 AVHRR radiometer) shows the huge frontal system associated to that depression. Click on the images to see the full display.

Weather Forecast North East West passage -01 Spt- day 50
 
General situation
This strong Easterly windfield is generated by the approaching low pressure system and the Westerly moving, very strong, high pressure system over the Beaufort Sea. This windfield dominates the whole of the Chukchi Sea, especially North of 70.5°N the wind is very strong from the East, so going further North is certainly no option.
We have to put our faith in the depression i mentioned yesterday. This feature is going to cross your position today (if position and timing is right than this should be around 18-21utc). As a consequence the wind will shift to the SE, later even to the South for a while. If we want to take advantage of this Southerly wind than we need to be at the waypoint 69.5/-173.5 by 18utc. Use the current Easterly wind to tac a little to the South (don’t go South of 69.5).
If this works out than the greatest part of tomorrow we can take advantage of the S to SE’ly wind to go East. I recommend not to go North of 70.2
Tomorrow by the end of the day wind turns East again. Not a lot of options than. South of 70.2 the wind is much calmer than North of 70.5. So the best option is head East, till the vicinity of the coast and than sail along the coast.

(All forecasted winds are average values).
 
Day 1: 02 Sept
Weather: very cloudy to overcast with outbreaks of sleet or rain.
Wind: 070-090°15-20kt, use this wind to go in a SE’ly direction towards waypoint 69.5/-175, if you’re there between 18/21utc wind will turn to 130-150°, use this wind direction to tac NE again but stay below 70°N. At the waypoint 70/-173 (at0600utc-3Sept) wind will be 160-180°8-12kt. Use this wind to go straight East (E to ENE)
 
Day 2: 03 Sept
Weather: very cloudy, enlarging sunny spells. Mainly dry.
Wind: 160-180°8-13kt, after 15utc gradually becoming 120-140°10-15kt, after 21utc becoming 100-120°8-12kt (waypoint 70.3/-168)
At this point there are not a lot of options. Further North is certainly no option: between 70.5-73 straight East 25kt. I would suggest to sail straight East or slightly ESE’wards.
 
Day 3: 04 Sept
Weather: variable cloudiness, sunny spells.
Wind: 100-120°6-12kt, after 12utc becoming 080-100°5-10kt.
 
Day 4: 05 Sept
Weather: sunny spells but gradually more clouds. no weather systems coming in.
Wind: 100-120°10-15kt, after 18/21utc 130-150°4-8kt
This means sailing along the coast

This entry was posted on Thursday, September 2nd, 2010 at 11:40 am and is filed under North East West passage. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.