North East West Forecast: 01 Sept - day 50
Posted in North East West passage | By Marc |
This is a satellite image of the Chukchi Sea from the polar orbiting satellite NOAA18. The current position of the Northern Passage is just out of the image, but this image shows well the approaching low pressure system with the associated frontal system. Click on the image to see the full display. (cfr Image from NOAA)
Weather Forecast North East West passage -01 Spt- day 50
General situation
This period is dominated by a complex low pressure area that currently approaches from the West and moves to the South of Wrangel into the Southern parts of the Chukchi Sea. This results in deteriorating weather conditions with possibly outbreaks of sleet (mixture of rain and snow). This affects the visibility in a negative way.
An other negative consequence of this low pressure area is that it tracks Eastwards to the SOuth of your current position. This results in a wind from the Easterly sector. Today in an early stadium there is still a SE’ly wind but as the low approaches the wind will turn straight East! It is expected to stay like this for the next 24 hours before veering a little to the SE.
For the whole of the traverse of the Chukchi Sea the wind is going to vary between SE and NE, so that headwind component will continuously be present.
There is an alternative to escape from these Easterly wind regime. It is a bit of a detour but the sailing will be a lot easier and maybe you’ll gain some time as well:
By 2 September 0600utc a small evolves at 68.7/-178. Over the next48 hours that feature deepens and track back to the NW (direction Wrangler island). If you stay along the 70°N parallel, this feature will caus you the strong Easterly wind on the 2nd and the 3rd. If you go South of this depression, you can pick up the Westerlies along the Southside of this depression. Later the wid turns to the S to go straight East. This would make you crossing the Chukchi Sea at the 69°parallel instead of the 70°. The difficult part of this option is that you need to be at 68.7 by 2 sept 06utc.
The wind forecast along 70°lat (All forecasted winds are average values).
Day 1: 01 Sept
Weather: increasing cloudiness from the West, later followed by rain or sleet.
Wind: 120-140°12-17kt, gradually backing to 090-110°10-15kt
Day 2: 02 Sept
Weather: very cloudy with some outbreaks of sleet/rain
Wind: 070-090°13-18kt, after 12/15utc becoming 120-140°10-15kt
Day 3: 03 Sept
Weather: variable cloudiness, mainly dry
Wind: 130-150°10-15kt, after 15utc becoming 090-110°5-10kt.
Day 4: 04 Sept
Weather: sunny spells and cloudy interval, mainly dry.
Wind: 080-100°10-15kt, after 18/21utc 060-080°12-16kt.