North East West passage: Forecast 26 August - day 44
Posted in North East West passage | By Marc |
This is the synoptic situation valid for Saturday. The Northern passage will be somewhere between the Medvez Islands and Pevek. At that time a mobile high ridge comes across their track. This leads to calm wind conditions for a while. One on the Western side they will pick up some wind again. Click on the image to see the full display.
Weather Forecast North East West passage -26 Aug- day 44
General situation
Today the rainfront comes across within its wake a building mobile high pressure ridge: this evolution will ease down the general weather conditions. This high pressure feature is quickly followed by the influence of the synoptic scale depression, crossing the East Siberian Sea along the 80° parallel. You will notice this by the backing of the wind, from WNW to SW/WSW, and again a little increasing. Tomorrow you can surf Eastwards on the leeside of the Medvez Island, however i would like to recommend to stay around 70.8-71N and not to go too close to the coast. As in the coastal areas the wind tends to drop due to the building continental high over Russia.
On Saturday (28 August), on you way to Pevek an other mobile ridge will come across your track. As a result the wind will drop away completely between roughly 11 and 18utc. At the western side of this cell the wind will pick up again (actually not too much) and turns to the SSE to S.
As a answer to your question about general conditions on longer term towards point Barrow, at this stage the model indicates that along that track (to point Barrow) the wind doesn’t drop away completely. But the general wind direction is varying between ENE and ESE. This means chiefly a headwind. On the other hand i need to add that prediction on such a long term in these location are prone to rapid changes. I will keep an eye on this befor you are in Pevek.
(All forecasted winds are average values).
Day 1: 26 Aug
Expected track: from 72/152 to 70.7/160 (Medvez Islands)
Weather: very cloudy to overcast with rain, after 12/15 clearing and a few sunny spells develop.
Wind: 260-280°8-12kt after 12utc becoming 220-240°13-18kt, after 21/24utc veering to 260-280°8-12.
Day 2: 27 Aug
Expected track: 70.7/160 to 70.4/167
Weather: sunny spells/scattered clouds/fog patches
Wind: 290-310°8-13kt no significant change
Day 3: 28 Aug
Expected track: 70.4/167 to 70/171 (Pevek) and further East
Weather: sunny/scattered clouds, mainly dry.
Wind: 310-330°3-8kt, after 09utc becoming weak to calm, after 15/18utc becoming 160-180/5-10kt