Everest Forecast 16 may

Detailed wind expectation during summit attempt according to timing of ascent. The latest forecast confirms the previous one: there is a weather window to summit on the 17th but it closes very rapidly after 04-05utc. So same conditions same warnings as yesterday: the sooner the better.
Start on the 16th 2000NepTime (14utc) at C3-C4: during climb wind is average 5-10kt.
Estimated time to arrive at the summit: 06-0900NepTime (00-0300utc): wind on summit during that spell: WSW to WNW 10-15kt, after 10/11NepTime (04/05utc) again quickly increasing to 25kt.
To come down from summit C4-C3-C2: 15-20kt
Weatherwise: confirmation the airmass is unstable which results in the possiblity of a few showery outbreaks, but this should be very limited.

Levels
Base camp: 5,360mr  17,858ft
Camp 1   : 6,100mr  20,000ft
Camp 2   : 6,600mr  21,500ft
Camp 3   : 7,200mr  23,600ft
Camp 4   : 7,800mr  26,000ft
Summit   : 8,848mr  29,029ft
 
General weather conditions
day 1: 16 may: cloudy with sunny spells. Unstable: clouds between 7 and 8000mr. Prob40% snow shower. Clearing above 6200mr during the day.
day 2: 17 may: sunny and clear. Formation of Cumulus between BC and 6200mr. Prob20% snow shower.
day 3: 18 may: sunny with some high clouds. Formation of Cumulus around 6-6500mr. Prob30% snow shower.
day 4: 19 may: sunny and clear. Few Cumulus around 6200mr. Some Cumulus between BC and 6200mr. Blowing snow above 8500mr.
day 5: 20 may: sunny and clear. Formation of Cumulus between BC and 6200mr: Prob40% snow shower.

Air temperatures during ascent
BC: 0°C
C1: -7°C
C2: -10°C
C3: -12°C
C4: -18°C
S!: -29°C
 
Wind forecast
day 1: 16 may
BC: WSW 5-10kt
C1: W 10-15kt
C2: WNW 10kt
C3: WNW 10kt
C4: NW 10-15kt becoming VAR 2-5kt
S!: NW 10-15kt becoming WSW 5kt
 
day 2: 17 may
BC: W 5-10kt
C1: WNW 10kt
C2: NW 10-15kt
C3: NW 10-15kt
C4: VAR 5kt after 03utc becoming NNW 15kt
S!: W 10-15kt after 04-05utc becoming W 25-30kt
 
day 3: 18 may
BC: WSW 10kt
C1: WNW 10kt
C2: NW 10-15kt
C3: NW 15kt
C4: NW 15-20kt
S!: WNW 20-25kt
 
day 4: 19 may
BC: WSW 15kt
C1: W 20kt
C2: W 25kt
C3: W 25-30kt
C4: W 30-35kt
S!: W 35-40kt
 
day 5: 20 may
BC: SW 10-15kt
C1: WSW 15kt
C2: W 15-20kt
C3: W 20kt
C4: W 30-35kt
S!: W 40kt

This entry was posted on Sunday, May 16th, 2010 at 9:12 am and is filed under Albert Bosch-Epopeya Everest Sin Limits. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.