Albert Bosch/Epopeya Everest Sin Limits - Forecast 15 May - day 38
Posted in Albert Bosch-Epopeya Everest Sin Limits | By Marc |
Everest Forecast 15 may
Detailed wind expectation during summit attempt according to timing of ascent. This confirms the fact that the window of the 17th is a very tight window! It looks like the wind increase on the early morning of the 17th could be a little bit earlier. So if possible: the earlier they start for the final ‘attaque’ on the 16th, the better!
Start on the 16th 2000NepTime (14utc) at C3-C4: during climb wind is average 5-10kt
Estimated time to arrive at the summit: 06-0900NepTime (00-0300utc): wind on summit during that spell: WSW to WNW 10-15kt, after 08/10NepTime again increasing to 20-25kt.
To come down from summit C4-C3-C2: 15-20kt
Weatherwise: confirmation the airmass is unstable which results in the possiblity of a few showery outbreaks, but this should be very limited.
Levels
Base camp: 5,360mr 17,858ft
Camp 1 : 6,100mr 20,000ft
Camp 2 : 6,600mr 21,500ft
Camp 3 : 7,200mr 23,600ft
Camp 4 : 7,800mr 26,000ft
Summit : 8,848mr 29,029ft
General weather conditions
day 1: 16 may: cloudy with sunny spells. Unstable: clouds 6 and 8000mr. Prob50% snow shower. Improving during the day.
day 2: 17 may: sunny and clear. Formation of Cumulus between BC and 6200mr. Prob20% snow shower.
day 3: 18 may: sunny with some high clouds. Unstable! Formation of Cumulus around 6-6500mr. Prob40% snow shower.
day 4: 19 may: sunny and clear. Few Cumulus around 6200mr. Blowing snow above 8500mr.
day 5: 20 may: sunny and clear. Formation of Cumulus between BC and 6200mr: Prob30% snow shower.
day 6: 21 may: Very cloudy and unstable. Prob 60% snow showers
day 7: 22 may: sunny with clouds at summit level. Cumulus between BC and 6200mr.
Air temperatures over the next seven days
BC: -4°C becoming 0°C (D6)
C1: -8°C becoming -4°C (D6)
C2: -10°C becoming -8°C (D6)
C3: -12°C becoming -10°C (D6)
C4: -19°C becoming -17°C (D6)
S!: -27°C becoming -26°C (D6)
Wind forecast
day 1: 16 may
BC: WSW 5-10kt
C1: W 10-15kt
C2: WNW 10-15kt
C3: WNW 10-15kt
C4: NW 5-10kt
S!: NW 10-15kt
day 2: 17 may
BC: WNW 10kt
C1: W 10kt becoming WNW 15kt
C2: NW 10-15kt becoming N 10kt
C3: NW 10-15kt becoming N 10kt
C4: WNW 5-10kt becoming (after 03/06utc) becoming 15-20kt
S!: W 10kt after 03/06utc becoming WNW 20kt after 06/09utc becoming 25kt
day 3: 18 may
BC: WSW 10kt
C1: NW 5-10kt becoming W 15kt
C2: N 10-15kt becoming W 15kt
C3: NW 10-15kt becoming W 20kt
C4: N 15kt becoming W 20-25kt
S!: WNW 20kt becoming W 25-30kt
day 4: 19 may
BC: WSW 15kt
C1: W 20kt
C2: W 25kt
C3: W 25-30kt
C4: W 25-30kt
S!: W 35-40kt
day 5: 20 may
BC: WSW 10-15kt
C1: WSW 15kt
C2: W 15-20kt
C3: W 20kt
C4: W 25-35kt
S!: W 25-35kt
day 6: 21 may
BC: W 10kt
C1: NW 10-15kt
C2: NW 15-20kt
C3: NW 15-20kt
C4: NW 15-20kt
S!: NW 20-25kt
day 7: 22 may
BC: WSW 10kt
C1: W 15kt
C2: W 15kt
C3: W 15kt
C4: W 15kt
S!: W 15kt