Albert Bosch/Epopeya Everest Sin Limits: Forecast 10 May - day 32
Posted in Albert Bosch-Epopeya Everest Sin Limits | By Marc |
Latest sat shot of South East Asia: stabilizing conditions over Nepal. Jet stream extends as far as the Himalayas, resulting in storm at the higher levels of the mountain (c) Satellite Image from Eumetsat
Everest Forecast 10 may
On the 11th and the 12th there will be a severe storm above 8000mr. Average wind speeds of 50-60kt(=100-120km/hr) and gusting up to 70-75kt (=150km/hr). This storm wind start to decrease late on the 12th so on the 13th and the 14th wind on summit is averagely between 20-30kt, still quite windy. From the 15th wind further decreases (10-20kt) but than the airmass is getting more unstable and the risk for snow or snow showers increases. The worst day for snow/showers looks like being the 16th. But as you know, this is a trend which needs confirmation.
Levels
Base camp: 5,360mr 17,858ft
Camp 1 : 6,100mr 20,000ft
Camp 2 : 6,600mr 21,500ft
Camp 3 : 7,200mr 23,600ft
Camp 4 : 7,800mr 26,000ft
Summit : 8,848mr 29,029ft
General weather conditions
day 1: 11 may: sunny and clear. Scattered Cumulus. Severe blowing snow above 8000mr
day 2: 12 may: sunny and clear. Scattered Cumulus. Severe blowing snow above 8000mr, decreasing later during the day (after 18/21utc)
day 3: 13 may: sunny with scattered Cumulus around 6-7000mr. The risk for a shower is very little.
day 4: 14 may: sunny and clear. Patches of Cumulus around 6500mr.
day 5: 15 may: sunny with growing Cumulus. Prob 30-40% snow showers.
day 6: 16 may: unstable conditions, growing Cumulus. Prob 70% snow showers.
day 7: 17 may: unstable conditions, growing clouds. Prob 50-60% snow showers.
Air temperatures over the next seven days
BC: -5°C becoming -2°C (D6)
C1: -8°C becoming -9°C (D6)
C2: -10°C becoming -11°C (D6)
C3: -12°C becoming -13°C (D6)
C4: -17°C becoming -19°C (D6)
S!: -26°C becoming -29°C (D6)
Wind forecast
day 1: 11 may
BC: SW 10-15kt becoming W 10kt
C1: WSW 20kt
C2: WSW 20kt
C3: W 20-25kt
C4: WNW 30kt
S!: W 50-60kt
day 2: 12 may
BC: WSW 10-15kt
C1: WSW 15-20kt
C2: WSW 20-25kt
C3: W 25kt
C4: W 30kt becoming 25kt
S!: W 50-60kt becoming 30kt
day 3: 13 may
BC: WSW 10kt
C1: WSW 15kt
C2: W 15-20kt
C3: W 15-20kt
C4: WNW 15-20kt becoming WNW 25kt
S!: W 25-30kt becoming W 20-25kt
day 4: 14 may
BC: WSW 10-15kt
C1: WSW 20kt
C2: W 20kt
C3: W 20-25kt
C4: W 20kt
S!: W 30kt becoming W 20-25kt
day 5: 15 may
BC: WSW 10kt
C1: WSW 15kt
C2: W 20kt
C3: W 20-25kt
C4: W 25-30kt becoming WNW 15kt
S!: WNW 15-20kt
day 6: 16 may
BC: W 10kt
C1: W 10-15kt
C2: W 10-15kt
C3: WNW 10-15kt
C4: NW 10-15kt
S!: WNW 10-15kt
day 7: 17 may
BC: VAR becoming W 15kt
C1: VAR becoming WNW 15kt
C2: VAR becoming NW 15kt
C3: VAR becoming NW 15kt
C4: VAR becoming NW 15kt
S!: VAR becoming N 15kt