Forecast - Dhaulaguiri 2013 (28.5/83.5)
 
Forecast 04 may-valid from 04 May until 09 May

1. Levels
Base camp   BC: 4,740mr  15,550ft - 550
Camp 1      C1: 5,700mr  18,700ft - 500
Camp 2      C2: 6,900mr  21,500ft - 450
Camp 3      C3: 7,500mr  22,600ft - 400
Summit      C4: 8,167mr  26,795ft - 350
 
2. In general:
-Weather: some slight cloud development with a risk for a slight snow shower in the lower parts of the mountain. Blowing snow conditions above 6000mr.

-Wind: throughout this period the wind is out of limits above 7000mr. There is no indication of a weather window of lesser winds. We need to bear in mind that the wind also between 5 and 7000mr is pretty strong with possibly strong gusts.

3. Weather
04 may  : sunny - slight cloud development between 5 and 6000mr- risk for (slight) snow/showers: 10-20%
05 may  : sunny - slight cloud development between 5 and 6000mr- risk for (slight) snow/showers: 10-20%
06 may  : sunny - slight to moderate cloud development between 4 and 6500mr- risk for (slight) snow/showers: 30%
07 may  : sunny - slight cloud development between 4 and 5000mr- risk for (slight) snow/showers: 10%
08 may  : sunny - slight cloud development between 4 and 5000mr- risk for (slight) snow/showers: 10%
09 may  : sunny - hardly any cloud development - risk for (slight) snow/showers: 10%

4. Temperatures changes during this period
BC: from -5C to -3C
C1: from -9C to -6C
C2: from -14C to -13C
C3: from -22C to -19C
S:  from -29C to -27C
still it is getting slowly slightly warmer at all levels of the mountain

Remark: temperatures shown are the temperatures taken at 00utc of the first day of the period (first column) and compared to the temperatures at 00utc of the last day of this period (second column).
 

5. Detailed Wind Forecast: see pdf windprint -
I have high lighted in red the winds that exceed 30kt between 7500mr and the summit
The values in blue are ‘in limits winds’ above 7500mr
Remark: wind print example: “260@050” means wind from 260 degrees true and average speed is 50 knots

Polar Ice - KITING 2200 km in Greenland 2013

A two man team kites from Narsaq in the South to Qaanaaq in the North.
Using katabatic winds they will cover a total distance of about 2200km or 1400miles. Daily updated weather and wind forecasts will help them to determine the best route with optimum wind conditions.

This is today’s forecast (26 April 2013):

Simon Edmunson/Polar Ice - forecast x - 26 April Narsaq-Qaanaaq

made26apr-1/3
valid:26apr
P:62.5/-46.5
Wind: SSE10-14ms tempo increasing to 15-20ms!! after 18utc decreasing to 8-12ms and veering to W to NW later
WX: overcast with moderate snow fall, poor visibility/contrast/horizon/blowing snow - improving after 18/21utc
advice: i was wrong about the indoor day. Sorry, forgot you guys are hard core !  Today indoor, or not? Outside it’s flying day!

made26apr-2/3
valid:27apr
P:63/-46.5
Wind: NNW8-12ms, after 18utc veering to NNE 6-9ms
WX:sunny, good visibility - no significant change
Advice: the wind direction is 330-340 degrees true. When you go as close to the wind as possible in a NE’ly direction you can compensate when the wind turns to the NNE.

made26apr-3/3
valid:28apr
P:63.5/-47
Wind: at 9-12utc wind veers from E to SE 6-8ms later increasing to 8-12ms
WX: sunny start gradually increasing cloudiness, followed by snow after 18/21utc
Adv: early start, enjoy as long as possible these good kite winds. Good direction.

New Land 2013 - Expedition

What?  Retracing historic expedition routes, visiting untouched land, and documenting an Arctic frontier
Who?  Expedition team consists of John Huston, Tobias Thorliefsson and Kyle O’Donoghue
Time and distance:  72 days, 600+ miles, travel by ski and ski sails
Where?   Click here for the map http://forwardendeavors.com/newland2013map/

Website: http://forwardendeavors.com/

Forecast - 23 April - New Land 2013 Expedition

Day 1 - 23 April
Position: 79.6/-84.5
WX: sunny, local shallow fog, gradually becoming sunny with patches of mid level cloud
Visibility: poor soon good
Wind: 150-170/8-13kt - no significant change
Temps: daymax: -16/-18C nightmin: -22/-24C

Day 2 - 24 April
Position: 79.8/-85
WX: sunny with patches of (at times pretty thick) mid/high level clouds
Visibility: good, tempo moderate contrast
Wind: 140-160/5-10kt after 12/15utc becoming 090-110/2-6kt
Temps: daymax: -14/-16C nightmin: -24/-26C

Day 3 - 25 April
Position: 80-85.9
WX: sunny spells with from time to time pretty thick mid and high level clouds, after 15/18utc enlarging sunny spells
Visibility: good, but surface contrast could become moderate/poor beneath the mid level cloud
Wind: 080-100/2-6kt after 12/15utc becoming 030-050/4-8kt
Temps: daymax: -12/-14C nightmin: -22/-24C

This forecast map shows the storm depression which is expected to hit South Georgia tomorrow. Peak gusts of over 50 - 60 kt are likely - see forecast below

Aviation Forecast - South Georgia
Stromness - 10 March 2013 - made 10/0900utc

1. Synoptic situation
The main feature to look forward to is the storm depression which is expected to come across South Georgia tomorrow (11 March). At this stage this pressure system is explosively deepening somewhere to the North west of South Georgia and is expected to hit the Island during the day of tomorrow.

However today, the weather will be favorably determined by the mobile high pressure ridge, that is situated in between the depression that dominated the weather the las couple of days and the depression described above.

2. Weather conditions
Today the conditions are expected to improve during the day. So most of the low clouds should gradually disappear and some orographic stuff remains. After 21/24utc the high and mid level clouds associated to the storm depression will gradually invade the South Georgian skies and will continuously increase and the cloud bade will gradually lower.
Tomorrow mainly overcast with moderate snow/sleet turning into sleet/rain. No significant change until 21/24utc. Very high winds develop.

3. Clouds
-4-6/8 Stratus gradually dissipating and becoming orographic with sunny periods
-after 21/24utc increasing and thickening  Cirrus/Cirrostratus and Altocumulus/Altostratus.
-after 11/06-09utc becoming 6-8/8 Stratus 1-1500ft and layers above.

4. Wind
10/12utc till 11/00utc: weak from variable directions tempo 150-170/5-10kt
11/00utc till 11/12utc: gradually increasing to become 100-120/15-20kt gust 30kt
11/12utc till 12/00utc: gradually further increasing with peak winds between 15-21utc: average 120-140/30-40kt gusting 50-60kt

5. Upperwinds - 1500ft
10/12utc till 11/00utc: 150-170/10-15kt
11/00utc till 11/12utc: becoming 120-140/25-30kt
11/12utc till 12/00utc: increasing tempo 130-150/50-60kt

6. Visibility
today mainly good.
tomorrow poor in mod to heavy sleet/snow

7.Hazards in flight
-icing: 0°C-isotherm is on the surface-tomorrow tempo mod to severe icing
-turbulence: today: none to weak-tomorrow: tempo mod to severe

9. General evolution for the next days
Tuesday 12/03/2013
weather: remainders of frontal depression with still some sleet. Still very cloudy but some short lived sunny spells develop.
wind: 140-160/25-30kt slowly decreasing

Wednesday 13/03/2013
weather: sunny, with patches of low clouds/fog
wind: Southerly sector veering to SW 10-15kt

Thursday 14/03/2013
weather: sunny, with patches of low clouds/fog
wind: SW 8-12kt

10. Remarks - Warning:
-valid for 12/12utc till 12/24utc: high wind speeds with peak gusts up to 60kt

11. Sunrise-Sunset (UTC)
10 Mar: Sunrise 8:08 Sunset 21:03
11 Mar: Sunrise 8:10 Sunset 21:01

Aviation Forecast - South Georgia
Stromness - 28 February 2013 - made 1115utc

1. Synoptic situation
A frontal system, associated to a depression that is situated East of the Antarctic Peninsula,
will cross South Georgia during the next 4-6 hours. This front is followed by an very unstable
air mass in an increasingly strong wind pattern. Tomorrow the unstable airmass is gradually
moving away to the East whilst a high pressure system builds over the Antarctic Peninsula.
This will introduce a gradual weather improvement.

2. Weather conditions
Very cloudy becoming overcast with rain/sleet until approximately 14-16utc.
Gradually a few breaks and a mix of dry spells and a few showery outbreaks.
After 00utc increasinly more intens and frequent showers.
Heaviest showers between 4 and 12utc.
After 12utc again bewoming better with a few sunny spells but still some showery outbreaks.

3. Clouds
6-8/8 Stratus and Stratocumulus base 500/1000ft tops 5/6000ft
becoming from 14-16utc 4-6/8 Stratocumulus and Cumulus base around 1000ft tops 2-3000ft
becoming from 04-06utc 7-8/8 Cumulus/Cb up to 16-18000ft
becoming from 12-14utc 4-6/8 Stratus and Stratocumulus, base around 1500-2000ft tops 3/4000ft

4. Wind
12utc till 00utc: 170-190 degrees true/10-15kt average
00utc till 12utc: veering to 270-290 true/increasing to 15-20kt average gust 30-35kt
12utc till 00utc: 230-250 true/increasing to 25-30kt average - gusts up to 40-45kt

5. Upperwinds - 1500ft
12utc till 00utc: 160-180 degrees true/10-15kt average
00utc till 12utc: veering to 270-290 true/increasing to 25-30kt average
12utc till 00utc: 240-260 true/increasing to 40-45kt average

6. Visibility
poor during rain/sleet becoming good behind the front, tempo moderate in showers.
during moderate to heavy showers visibility can become poor again.
In between the showery outbreaks good visibility.

7.Hazards in flight
-icing: in clouds moderate
-turbulence: light today but becoming moderate to severe in increasing wind/instability pattern

9. General evolution for the next days
Saturday:
weather: mix of sunny spells and patches of Stratus around the mountains-increasing cloudiness after 18/21utc
wind: WSW average 28-33kt

Sunday
weather: overcast/rain-sleet becoming variable with a few sunny spells but also showery outbreaks
wind in general from Westerly directions, around 30kt average

Monday
weather: sunny spells and mainly dry - increasing cloudiness after 18utc
wind: from westerly directions around 25kt

weather4expeditions.com supports the South Georgia Rat Eradication Project with daily weather forecasts

[View with PicLens]

As from 28 February weather4expeditions.com will concentrate on the meteorological conditions of South Georgia, a sub Antarctic island South East of the Falkland Islands.
For the next few months a highly motivated team works on this wonderful island in order to extinguish the brown rats and restore the orignal habidat
weather4expeditions makes daily aviation forecasts for a team of three helicopters so the can operate safely.

Via www.weather4expeditions.com you can find out more about this project.

Forecast 16 September 2012 - Manaslu - Forecast 7
28.55/84.56

Camps:
BC: 4700mr-550
C1: 5500mr-500
C2: 6300mr-450
C3: 7300mr-400
S!: 8163mr-350

D1:17Sept
wx: very cloudy to overcast with solid clouds between 5500 and 7500mr, gradually thickening and increasing. Periods with snow/snow showers.
4700mr: S 3-5ms
5500mr: SW 4-6ms
6300mr: SW 4-6ms
7300mr: SW 6-8ms
8163mr: SW 8-10ms

D2:18Sept
wx: still very cloudy, main cloud layer beween 5500-7500mr with snow showers. Later a few sunny spells.
4700mr: SSW 2-4ms
5500mr: SW 4-6ms
6300mr: SW 4-6ms
7300mr: SW 5-7ms
8163mr: SW 7-9ms

D3:19Sept
wx: very cloudy up to 6-6500mr, snow showers will develop
4700mr: SSW 4-6ms
5500mr: SSW 5-7ms
6300mr: SW 7-9ms
7300mr: SW 7-9ms
8163mr: becoming WSW 8-10ms

D4:20Sept
wx: very cloudy to overcast, with snow/snow showers
4700mr: SSW 3-5ms, decreasing
5500mr: SW 6-8ms, decreasing
6300mr: SW 6-8ms, decreasing
7300mr: SW 7-9ms, decreasing
8163mr: WSW 8-10ms, decreasing

D5:21Sept
wx:sunn spells but clouds develop between 5000 and 7000mr.
4700mr: SW 1-3ms
5500mr: WSW 1-3ms
6300mr: WSW 3-5ms
7300mr: WSW 3-5ms
8163mr: W 4-6ms

The Twin Otter with the PARCA crew waves goodbye to NEEM (by J.P. Steffensen)

Weather changed today. While the day began almost as usual, the weather
changed rapidly in the afternoon. Temperatures increased and clouds with
snow moved in obscuring the Sun and removing all contrast. So far the wind
has not picked up; but we expect it will. By midnight visibility was
reduced to 500 m due to snow.

Because we have very reliable weather forecasts, we knew this weather was coming,
and both aeroplanes managed to escape the weather. The Twin Otter left at 13.00 a
nd by 17.00 NEEM was closed for traffic. A close escape! We cannot believe our luck.

During their time at NEEM, both planes and crews completed their tasks without
delay. With the planes and crews away, the number of people at NEEM is
reduced from 27 to 16, so all of a sudden it was much less crowded at the
dinner tables. We wish all the departed people “Bon Voyage”.

What we have done today:
1. Sending off two aeroplanes.
2. Moving frozen food from ramp to science trench.
3. Packing Danish intermediate drill down for shipment out. All traces of
    drilling activities in the carpenter garage have been removed.
4. U.S. sonic logging of deep borehole in progress.
5. Setting up German drill system. Final adjustments. Drilling should begin
    tomorrow.
6. Cleaning up in the cargo line. Collecting cargo for shipment out.

Weather:
Few clouds in the morning, after 17.00 overcast.
Temp. - 7°C to - 21°C, 5-12 knots from SSE to SW.
Visibility: Morning, to horizon and evening 500 m, snow.

Greenland 2012 - Villa - Hahn Glacier/Kangerlussuaq - Date: 31 May 2012

Day 1: 31 May 2012
Estimated travel: from 66.9/-48.1 to 66.9/-48.6
Wind: SE 8-10ms, slightly decreasing to 6-8ms
Weather: mostly sunny/drifting-blowing snow
Temps: day: +2/0C night: -1/-3C
Advice: very warm/day, slightly cooler/night

Day 2: 01 June 2012
Estimated travel: from 66.9/-48.6 to 67.0/-49.1
Wind: SE 7-9ms, becoming 5-7ms. After 18/21utc becoming SE 10-12ms
Weather: mostly sunny/drifting-blowing snow
Temps: day: +2/0C night: -1/-3C
Advice: same remark

Day 3: 02 June 2012
Estimated travel: from 67.0/-49.1 to 67.0/-49.6
Wind: SE 10-12ms, after 12utc becoming 5-7ms
Weather: mostly sunny/drifting-blowing snow improving. Few thin high clouds.
Temps: day: +2/0C night: -1/-3C
Advice: same remark